Declining wheat quotations on stock exchanges are increasing pressure on prices in Ukraine

Favorable precipitation last week, which will continue this week in major wheat-exporting countries, led to a decrease in wheat quotations on exchanges by 2.9-6.2% per week, and in total, prices have already fallen by 3.4-8.2% per month.

Such a sharp drop in quotes and an increase in the harvest forecast in Ukraine (insert link to today's news about the UGA forecast) due to improved weather conditions reduces export prices for Ukrainian wheat.

According to NASS Crop Progress, in the United States, as of May 31, winter wheat has been harvested on 5% of the area (3% on average over 5 years), the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition during the week remained at 26% (52% a year ago), spring wheat has been sown on 94% of the planned area (89% on average over 5 years), and 47% of spring wheat crops are in good or excellent condition (50% a year ago).

The volume of wheat exports from the United States in the 2025/26 MY amounted to 23.893 million tons, which is 9.27% higher than last year's pace, but inferior to the USDA forecast of 24.77 million tons.

July wheat futures fell for the week:

• by 6.2% to $223.7/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-5% per month),
• by 5.4% to $237.7/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (-7.6%),
• by 5.9% to $239.6/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-8.2%),
• by 2.9% to €206.5/t or $250.7/t - September wheat futures on Euronext in Paris (-3.4%).

Cool and rainy weather has set in in Ukraine, which is conducive to the development of crops and improving harvest prospects.

During the week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine decreased by 50-100 UAH/t to 11,100-11,200 UAH/t or $222-225/t for food wheat and to 10,900-10,950 UAH/t or $218-219/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Wheat exports from Ukraine for May 1-30 amounted to 1.194 million tons (compared to 900 thousand tons in May 2025), and in total in the 2025/26 MY reached 12.5 million tons, which is 18% lower than last year's pace (14.8 million tons). The main buyers in May were: Egypt - 422 thousand tons, Algeria - 331 thousand tons, Yemen - 107 thousand tons, Indonesia - 105.4 thousand tons, Tunisia - 63 thousand tons, Spain - 31.5 thousand tons.

According to FranceAgriMer, in France, despite a period of hot weather, the number of wheat crops in good or excellent condition remained at 80% during the week (73% last year).

The ABARES agency predicts that the wheat harvest in Australia in the 2026/27 MY will decrease by 26% compared to last year to 26.7 million tons due to adverse weather during sowing and reduced rainfall.