Lower forecasts for global wheat exports and imports in the new USDA report increased pressure on quotes

In the October supply and demand report, USDA experts slightly changed the world wheat balance compared to September estimates, but reduced forecasts for wheat exports and imports, so quotes continued to fall.

The pressure on quotes was also increased by increased forecasts for the US corn and wheat harvest and an increase in the estimate of US wheat stocks due to delayed exports.

December wheat futures fell on Friday:

• by 1.9% to $246.6/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago (-5.4% compared to the level after the September report was released),
• by 2.4% to $264.3/t - for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-9%),
• by 1.6% to $255.5/t - for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-5%),
• by 0.9% to €242/t or $271/t - December wheat futures on Euronext in Paris (+0.4% in euros, but -3.3% in dollars due to the depreciation of the euro).

March futures are trading $4-5/t higher than December futures, on expectations of continued blocking of exports from the Black Sea.

Compared to September estimates, the world wheat balance for the 2026/27 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves has been increased by 0.95 million tonnes to 281.55 (260.4 in 2025/26 MY) million tonnes due to an increase in initial reserves in Australia.
• The forecast for world production is left unchanged at 822.39 (844.06) million tons, but for the EU the forecast is reduced by 0.8 to 133.0 (145.1) million tons, which will be offset by an increase in estimates for Canada by 0.5 to 36.5 (40) million tons and Turkey - by 0.5 to 23 million tons, as well as for the USA - by 0.1 to 41.74 (54.14) million tons.
• The estimate of global wheat consumption has been increased by 1.25 million tonnes to 827.90 (822.9) million tonnes due to an increase in feed consumption in China and the EU of 1 million tonnes each.
• The forecast for world wheat imports has been reduced by 2.68 million tons to 204.8 (221.6) million tons due to reduced imports to North African and Asian countries due to reduced supplies from the Black Sea region and a good domestic harvest.
• The forecast for world exports has been reduced by 2.8 million tons to 209 million tons (226.9 million tons in 2025/26 MY), in particular for the Russian Federation - by 3 to 40 (48) million tons, the USA - by 0.68 to 20.41 (24.9) million tons, which will only be partially offset by an increase in exports from Canada by 0.5 million tons to 30.5 (29.8) million tons and from Argentina - by 0.5 to 16 (19.1) million tons. At the same time, the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine was left at 12.5 million tons (14.1 million tons in 2025/26 MY), despite the continued blocking of supplies via the Black Sea.
• The estimate of world ending stocks of wheat has been reduced by 0.25 million tons to 276.04 million tons, which will be 5.5 million tons lower than the 2025/26 MY figure. At the same time, the decrease in stocks in the EU by 1.8 million tons, in China by 1 million tons and in Argentina by 0.5 million tons, as well as in Egypt and a number of other countries, is almost completely offset by their increase in the Russian Federation by 3 million tons, Australia by 0.75 million tons and the USA by 0.6 million tons.

Global wheat supply remains high this season, and good domestic harvests in importing countries allow them to postpone major wheat purchases to the second half of the season, when exports from Black Sea ports may resume, and Argentina and Australia will complete their harvest and increase supply. Therefore, we expect wheat quotes to remain under pressure from increased supply amid subdued demand.