The completion of the canola harvest in Canada and increased production forecasts in Australia and the Russian Federation will increase the pressure on quotes

The successful completion of the canola harvest in Canada, an increase in the harvest forecast for Australia, and the high pace of canola supplies from Ukraine continue to put pressure on Canadian canola quotes and, accordingly, on canola prices in Paris.

As of October 20, canola has been harvested on 96% of the area in Saskatchewan, 86% in Alberta, and 92% in Manitoba, and the frosty and dry weather forecast for this week will allow farmers to complete the harvest.

November canola futures in Winnipeg have decreased by 0.9% to 780 CAD/t or $556/t over the past 7 days (-3.8% per month), and January futures - to 794 CAD/t, although the quote supports the growth of export demand and oil prices.

Canola exports from Canada for October 11-18 increased by 35.9% compared to the previous week to 215.1 thousand tons, and in total since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY (August 1) reached 1.6248 million tons, which is 50.5% higher than the corresponding figure last year (1.0794 million tons), according to the Canadian Grain Commission.

Oil prices remain at their highest level since the beginning of the year at $116/barrel, boosting demand for biofuels. They are supported by speculative expectations of a new war against Iran, but elections in Israel and the US could significantly turn markets around.

February rapeseed futures in Paris rose 1% to €552.25/t or $618/t (-1% month-on-month) in the last 7 days, following oil prices, while November futures (which expire on October 30) rose 6.9% to €527.25/t (-3.9%).

In 2026/27 MY, thanks to increased rainfall in recent months, Australia may harvest a record canola crop, which will exceed the previous record of the 2022/23 season (7.6 million tons). Currently, ABARES analysts estimate the harvest at 7.3 million tons, USDA at 7.8 million tons, Lachstock at 8 million tons, Rabobank at 8.1 million tons.

Chinese companies have purchased about 1 million tons of Australian rapeseed for delivery in early 2027 at a price of $695-705/ton C&F (delivered to Chinese ports), Reuters reports.

In the 22 days of October, Ukraine exported 284.5 thousand tons of rapeseed (430 thousand tons in September and 292.6 thousand tons in August). This indicates that the forecast of exports from Ukraine at the level of 1.5-2 million tons in 2026/27 MY will be achieved, even without the operation of Black Sea ports.

Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine during the week remained at the level of $475–500/t with delivery to Danube ports and $500–520/t with delivery to western terminals, but the cost of delivery increased to UAH 3,000–3,500/t ($60–80/t), so domestic purchase prices will continue to decline.

Demand prices for Ukrainian rapeseed with delivery by dump trucks to the Romanian port of Constanta remain at $575–580/t, and with delivery to the Czech Republic and Latvia - at €520–525/t with delivery in November–December and €530–540/t with delivery in January–February.

The fall in prices for sunflower and meal will increase the pressure on rapeseed prices in the near future. It should be noted that in addition to the record sunflower harvest of 20-21 million tons (compared to 17.5 million tons last year), the Russian Federation also plans to harvest a record rapeseed harvest, which will increase the pressure on the prices of rapeseed oil and meal on the world market. The Ruseed analytical center predicts that the gross rapeseed harvest in the Russian Federation in 2026 will reach 7.2-7.3 million tons, which will be 30.4% higher than the record figure of 2025 (5.6 million tons), which was 20% higher than the harvest of 2024.