According to the World Bank forecast, grain prices will increase by 9% in 2027

In the October Commodity Markets Outlook report, World Bank experts forecast a 14.1% increase in global grain prices in 2026 and 9.3% in 2027. The overall food price index will increase by 10.3% in 2026 and by 7.2% in 2027.

 

Wheat prices will increase the most due to supply disruptions from the Black Sea region, adverse weather conditions and increased production costs. Thus, prices for American hard red winter wheat (HRW) in 2026 will increase by 28% compared to the previous year from $243/t to $311/t, and in 2027 - by another 13.5% to $353/t, while in the April report the average price for 2026 was forecast at $253/t, and in 2027 - $260/t.

 

Corn prices in 2026 will increase by 9.9% from $203/t to $223/t, and in 2027 – by another 5.4% to $235/t. Barley prices in 2026 will be $164/t, and in 2027 – $172/t. The average price of Thai rice with 5% broken grains in 2026 will increase from $408/t to $448/t, and in 2027 – to $500/t.

 

Oilseed and processed oilseed markets will also see higher prices, with soybean oil prices rising the most. In 2026, they will increase by 39% year-on-year to $1,585/tonne, and in 2027 – to $1,765/tonne. Soybean meal prices will increase by 17.5% to $430/tonne in 2026, and by another 9.5% to $471/tonne in 2027, while soybean prices will reach $489/tonne and $515/tonne, respectively.

 

Price pressure is further exacerbated by the rise in the price of fertilizers and energy. According to the World Bank, energy prices will increase by another 32% in 2026, in particular, Brent crude oil prices will rise from $69/barrel to $91/barrel. The fertilizer price index will increase by 14.3% in 2026 (in particular, urea prices will increase by 20.6% to $510/t), but will decrease by 12.4% in 2027, but energy, processing and transportation costs will remain the main components of the cost of agricultural products.

 

According to the World Bank, the biggest drivers of prices will be the blockade of supplies from Black Sea ports, rising energy prices and a possible strengthening of the El Niño phenomenon. If all these factors are combined, world food prices in 2027 will exceed the baseline forecast by 12% and will be higher than in 2022. Import-dependent countries in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia will suffer the most.