Bearish world balance USDA soybean will not affect prices

2020-01-13 12:05:35
Machine translation
Bearish world balance USDA soybean will not affect prices

the January USDA report failed to meet expectations of traders regarding the reduction of the forecast of production and increase in soybean exports for the United States. Almost the same but the balance has not led to lower prices for soybeans as traders are more confident in the signing of a trade agreement with China than the experts at the USDA.


This week needs to be signed the first part of the trade agreement between the U.S. and China under which the latter agrees to increase the purchase of agricultural products from the United States to $ 40 billion a year. Most experts do not believe in the reality of such purchase as to the beginning of a trade war China imported from the US goods to $ 20 billion, so in order to double the amount of imports, he will have to abandon the purchase of products from Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine, which has already signed long-term agreements.


In the January balance, the experts, the USDA increased global beginning stocks of soybeans by 0.48 million tonnes due to growth of stocks in Brazil by 0.5 million tons, the forecast of production of 0.38 million tonnes, thanks to the US and forecast of global consumption by 0.5 million tons because of China, resulting in the estimate for ending stocks was reduced to 0.27 million tons.


Analysts had expected a more substantial reduction in ending stocks in the U.S. and in the world of declining production in the United States for uncollected soybean crop in the Northern States, and the increase in forecast exports through the signing of a trade agreement.


But despite the slight decrease in the areas of cleaning soybeans in the United States for the cold weather in North and South Dakota, crop yield forecast increased due to rise in Indiana and Illinois, allowing the assessment of soybean production in the United States in 2019/20 Mr increased by 0.22 million tonnes to 96,84 million tons.


the Forecast of soybean exports from the U.S. left at 48,31 million tons as USDA experts do not believe in the signing of an agreement with China.


For Brazil, the forecast of soybean production left at 123 mln t, for Argentina at 53 MMT due to favorable weather conditions throughout South America.


After the publication of the report of the March soybean futures fell to 343,5 $/t, but before the end of trading recovered to 347, 5 $/t

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