USDA again lowered its forecast for world corn stocks, but the market reacted calmly
The USDA's June report again lowered its global corn stock estimates for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 MYs, largely due to higher consumption estimates. However, the market reaction was muted, with futures up just 0.1-0.3% as traders anticipate strong harvests in the US and Brazil and remain cautious about weak demand from China.
Quote movement:
- July CBOT futures : $172.4/t (+0.3% on the day, -2.3% from May report)
- December futures : $173.2/t (+0.1%, –1.3%)
Changes in the balance sheet for the 2024/25 MY:
|
Indicator |
June |
May |
Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Beginning stocks |
315.9 |
316.07 |
-0.17 |
|
Production |
1223.3 |
1221.3 |
+2.05 |
|
Consumption |
1254.2 |
1250.1 |
+4.12 |
|
Export |
189.94 |
189.35 |
+0.59 |
|
Ending stocks |
285.0 |
287.3 |
-2.25 |
Balance for FY 2025/26:
|
Indicator |
June |
May |
Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Beginning stocks |
285.0 |
287.3 |
-2.25 |
|
Production |
1266.0 |
1265.0 |
+1.0 |
|
Consumption |
1275.8 |
1274.4 |
+1.36 |
|
Export |
195.8 |
195.8 |
0 |
|
Ending stocks |
275.2 |
277.8 |
-2.6 |
Key highlights:
- Global consumption in the 2025/26 MY is forecast at a record level of 1,275.8 million tons , which is 10 million tons more than the expected harvest.
- The US export forecast for 2024/25 MY has been increased by +1.27 million tons to 67.3 million tons.
- Ukraine's exports were left at 22 million tons, of which 21.7 million tons have already been sold.
- Despite the fundamental shortage, traders remain cautious due to expected high harvests in the US and Brazil and uncertainty with demand from China.
Despite positive signals on the balance sheet, the market is not showing price growth due to expectations of a strong harvest and foreign policy risks. The reaction may change if the forecast for Brazil is revised or demand dynamics from China improve.
