USDA predicts 13% reduction in wheat imports to North Africa in 2026/27 MY

USDA experts predict that in the 2026/27 MY, North African countries, due to increasing their own wheat production, will reduce wheat imports by 12.9% compared to the previous season, from 33.3 to 29 million tons, which will be the first reduction in supplies in the last five years.

Morocco is expected to reduce wheat imports by 43% to 4 million tons, Algeria by 10%, and Egypt by 5%.

The USDA notes that favorable weather conditions have allowed grain production in the region to increase. According to forecasts, in the 2025/26 MY, Morocco will increase grain production by almost two times compared to the previous season, and Tunisia - by 20%.

Despite forecasts of reduced purchases, North African countries will remain among the most import-dependent, and Egypt will retain its status as the world's largest wheat importer.

Egypt and Indonesia could each import 12.5 million tonnes of wheat in 2026/27. However, reducing imports will help the countries reduce food costs amid volatile global agricultural prices.