In the 2025/26 MY, barley production in Ukraine will decrease, so producers expect prices to increase, but the market will remain under pressure from increased global feed grain production

In Ukraine, the reduction in sowing areas and negative weather factors will significantly reduce barley production in the 2025/26 MY, experts from the PUSK agricultural cooperative, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR), believe.

The harvest is expected to be 5.1-5.3 million tons, 40% below pre-war production levels. This will reduce supply at the start of the season, to which prices are responding by gradually rising.

At the same time, demand for Ukrainian barley is increasing, in particular from China, which is returning to the market, and from the countries of Southern Europe. China has already contracted 500 thousand tons of Ukrainian barley for delivery in July-August, and buyers from Europe, in particular from Spain and Italy, are also intensifying their purchases. Given the decrease in production, traders are trying to purchase the necessary volumes in advance.

Experts expect barley prices to rise in the second half of the year, especially if the harvest turns out to be smaller than predicted. "At the start of the season, prices will be $200-205/t delivered to the port, and in December-January they may reach $230-240/t against the backdrop of a limited supply of quality barley," the VAR believes.

It is worth noting that barley production in Ukraine has been declining over the past 10 years due to declining export demand and prices, as major global importers, especially China, are increasing the use of compound feeds also made from corn, meal, and other grains.

If Ukraine previously harvested 8-9 million tons of barley, then in 2023 the harvest amounted to 5.8 million tons, and in 2024 - 5.7 million tons, and exports were 2.36 and 2.3 million tons, respectively.

In the 2024/25 MY, export prices for barley were $10-15/t lower than for feed wheat and corn, and at the beginning of the season were $160-170/t CPT, and in March-April (when traders closed contracts) they rose to $220-225/t, while prices for feed corn reached $243-245/t.

Forecasts of an increase in world corn production in 2025/26 MY to a record level will limit the growth of barley prices. For example, forward prices for corn are currently $200-205/t, and for barley - $185-190/t.

According to the USDA forecast, global feed grain production in 2025/26 MY will grow to a record 1,549 million tons (1,502 million tons in 2024/25 MY and 1,507 million tons in 2023/24 MY).