Barley prices remain under diverse factors of influence

2020-07-01 12:20:44
Machine translation
Barley prices remain under diverse factors of influence

the Agency's MARS due to droughty conditions in the spring of 2020 have reduced the forecast yield of winter barley in Russia in comparison with the previous year by 8.8% to 3.78 t/ha, which is 8.2% below the average 5-year average.

 

With spring barley in Russia sowed 7.9 million hectares of 100.6% of the plan. Adverse spring weather will not allow to increase the yield of spring barley, therefore, the total harvest compared to last year will decrease.

 

Ukraine has just started harvesting winter barley, therefore, yield estimation has not yet been corrected, and the forecast of the total gross yield remains at the level of 7.5-8 mln tons.

 

According to estimates by Statistics Canada, in Canada of the sowing area of barley increased in comparison with the previous year by 1.4% to the highest since 2009, 7.5 million acres, and due to favorable spring weather conditions forecast of the crop may exceed last year's figure.

 

In Australia heavy spring rains contributed to the increase in the area planted barley and crop potential.

 

Introduced to China from may 19 antidotal anti-dumping and import duties on barley from Australia with a size of 80.5% will have a significant impact on the world market of barley. China has bought Australian barley and is now interested in the black sea as political relations with Canada are still strained.

 

the Growth of demand for Ukrainian barley from China has led to higher premiums. For are certified to supply China's barley in Ukraine, offering in port 165-168 $/t 6-8 $/t higher than the price of barley without certification.

 

Traditional buyer of black sea barley – Saudi Arabia bought a large batch of barley at a price that corresponds to the price level of the previous season, so are unlikely to compete with China on the Ukrainian market.

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