Soybean prices in Ukraine have risen, but further growth will limit the decline in Chicago quotes

In Ukraine, the rapid growth of export prices and demand for soybeans continues, caused by the low pace of deliveries under previously concluded contracts, as well as a sharp speculative jump in soybean quotes in Chicago.

Purchase prices for GMO soybeans increased by another $3-5/t to $415-420/t or 18,000-18,200 UAH/t, and for non-GMO soybeans - by $5/t to $445-450/t or 18,900-19,200 UAH/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

At the same time, processors have so far left their purchase prices at 17,500-18,000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, but some are ready to offer premium prices for quick delivery.

Soybean exports from Ukraine in the 2025/26 MY (September 1 - November 10) amounted to only 360 thousand tons compared to 1.1 million tons for the same period in 2024, and the pace of shipments will remain low even after the regulation of export conditions for producers.

We warned about a possible pullback in soybean prices in Chicago, as China will not actively buy expensive soybeans from the US, so soybean prices in Ukraine may also fall as traders fulfill contracts.

January soybean futures in Chicago fell 1.8% after the USDA report on Friday, but rose 2.9% on Monday , and on Tuesday and Wednesday fell again by 2% to $409/t as traders booked profits after a speculative rise.

On Tuesday, the USDA announced through its daily announcement system the sale of 792,000 tons of soybeans to China, and on Wednesday, the sale of another 330,000 tons of soybeans, confirming rumors that had been circulating since Monday, but for some reason these facts have already worked to lower prices. Traders still do not believe that China will buy the announced volume of soybeans from the US.

Rabobank’s latest review notes that uncertainty over trade relations between the US and China continues to weigh on the global soybean market. In addition, experts warn that the agreement for China to purchase 12 million tonnes of US soybeans by the end of 2025 and then 25 million tonnes annually from 2026 to 2028 does not contain enforcement mechanisms, and the remaining tariffs could hinder commercial supplies. This means that China’s purchases are likely to depend on government structures, not the market.