Soybean prices in Ukraine continue to decline due to problems with product exports

The blocking of oil and meal exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports continues to put pressure on oilseed prices, which, although processed mainly within Ukraine, are dependent on exports.

 

Logistical problems with rail and road deliveries across the western borders are intensifying amid an increase in the supply of rapeseed, soybeans, and corn to the EU, so transportation prices increased by 15-20% in August, and may increase by another 10-20% in September and October.

 

Processors continue to lower prices for GMO soybeans in line with rising export costs, and in a week they reduced them by another 500-1000 UAH/t to 16,500-17,500 UAH/t with delivery to the factory.

 

A slight increase in soybean prices in the EU at the end of August stimulated export sales of soybeans from Ukraine, as export prices for soybeans with GMOs and 33% protein (on a crude basis) rose to $400-420/t delivered to the border and $425-435/t loaded into a Eurocar, and for soybeans without GMOs - to $460-465/t delivered to the border and $470-480/t loaded into a Eurocar for deliveries in October-December.

 

Data from the first threshings showed that the yield and quality of soybeans in central and western Ukraine is lower than expected due to the hot weather in August, and the protein content is 31-32% (on a crude basis), so some soybeans will not meet export requirements and will be sold at a discount.

 

It should be noted that European buyers need to supply soybeans mainly in December 2026 - February 2027, and receipt in October - November is limited due to the shortage of logistics and transshipment capacities both in Ukraine and in EU countries.

 

It is expected that in the near future, the supply of soybeans from farmers will increase, which will increase pressure on the domestic market.

 

November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade over the past 7 days have traded at the highest level since late 2023 at $481/t (+10.1% per month) on expectations of a lower soybean harvest forecast in the US and an increase in domestic demand for oil following oil and biofuel prices.

 

Tomorrow, the USDA will release an updated forecast for the US soybean crop, and analysts expect lower yield and production estimates, which will also give prices a new boost.

 

But further increases in soybean prices will limit forecasts of a record global soybean harvest in the 2026/27 MY, so now the main attention is focused on the weather in Brazil, where there are good rains on the eve of soybean planting, and the impact of El Niño with drier weather for South America and Australia is still absent.