Soybean prices in Chicago continue to fall, but in Ukraine they are rising due to high domestic demand

Slow sales of American soybeans to China, as well as improved conditions for soybean cultivation in South America, are putting pressure on quotes.

January soybean futures in Chicago fell another 2% to $393.8/t over the past week, losing 8% over the month (recall that speculative growth in October-November was 13%) and not waiting for active exports to China.

Currently, according to USDA, confirmed sales of American soybeans to China are about 4.2 million tons, which is far from the promised 12 million tons by the end of 2025, and the pace of overall exports is also falling, and only active domestic processing is supporting prices.

In the 2025/26 MY (September 1 - December 11), the US exported only 13.7 million tons of soybeans, which is 46.3% lower than the corresponding figure last year and is 30% of the forecasted exports for the season.

According to the US Association of Processors NOPA, during November, soybean processing in the US decreased compared to October by 5% to 5.88 million tons, which was 11.8% higher than the figure in November 2024 and became a record for this month. However, soybean oil stocks increased by 15.95% from the end of October to 687 thousand tons, which is 39.6% higher than the figure in November 2024, so the rate of processing is expected to continue to decrease.

According to the AgRural agency, as of December 11, 97% of the planned area has been sown with soybeans in Brazil, and favorable rainfall last week and this week will continue to improve the condition of the crops.

In Ukraine, due to a decrease in the soybean harvest, supply remains low, so competition between exporters and processors is intensifying, and prices remain high.

Export purchase prices for GMO soybeans remain at $418-425/t or UAH 18,200-18,500/t, but prices for non-GMO soybeans have sharply decreased by $15-20/t to $425-430/t or UAH 18,500-18,800/t with delivery to Black Sea ports amid Pakistan's decision to allow imports of GMO soybeans and rapeseed .

Last week, processors increased the asking price for GMO soybeans by 300-400 UAH/t to 18,500-19,000 UAH/t (protein 37-38%), but prices for non-GMO soybeans remained at 18,600-19,000 UAH/t (protein 39-40%) with delivery to the plant.

The reduction in export duties on soybeans and processed products in Argentina, as well as optimistic forecasts for the new soybean crop in Brazil against the backdrop of large stocks, will continue to put pressure on quotes in the coming month.