Sunflower prices in Ukraine continue to rise, but the market expects an increase in supply and price stabilization

The sunflower market in Ukraine remains in a nervous state with a gradual increase in sunflower prices following sunflower oil prices, as well as the strengthening of the dollar against the hryvnia.

Dry weather this week will allow the completion of the sunflower harvest and help increase supply amid high prices.

As of October 23, 7.838 million tons of sunflower were harvested in Ukraine from 82% of the area (+6% per week and 94% a year ago) or 4.24 million hectares with an average yield of 1.85 tons/hectare (2.06 tons/hectare on this date last year), so harvest forecasts have been reduced to 10-10.5 million tons.

Prolonged rainfall led to the loss of part of the crop in the west of the country and reduced the yield potential in other regions, but no increase in the acid number in the latest batch of threshed sunflower is observed.

During the week, the demand prices for sunflower in Ukraine increased by another 300-400 UAH/t to 28,500-29,200 UAH/t (for 50% oil content) with delivery to the plant, but dollar prices increased by only 3-4 $/t to 594-610 $/t excluding VAT. The hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar fell by 0.9% during the week, and by 1.9% during the month, which added about 500 UAH/t to the price of sunflower.

Spot demand prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine increased by another $20-30/t to $1,245-1,255/t with delivery to ports in October-November against the backdrop of limited supply and high demand, which supported prices for Russian oil, which increased by $10-20/t to $1,220-1,230/t FOB in a week.

Demand prices for sunflower meal in Ukraine fell by another $5-10/t to $190-200/t delivered to ports over the week amid increased supply and increased competition on the world market. Increased supply from the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan will continue to put pressure on prices for meal and oil.

Argentina in September increased its sunflower meal exports to a 25-year high of 180,000 tonnes, with almost 90% of that going to the EU and the UK. In the 2024/25 marketing year (October-September), meal exports rose to 1.37 million tonnes, up from 1.12 million tonnes in 2023/24. Argentina also exported 170,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in September, bringing its total shipments in July-September 2025 to 0.59 million tonnes, up from 0.38 million tonnes in the same period in 2024, Oil World reported.

In particular, oil supplies to India during this time increased to a record 365 thousand tons, as a result of which the share of shipments to India in total oil exports increased to 62% compared to 17% in July-September 2024.

The Indian market will see an increase in the supply of Russian oil, while Kazakhstani oil is conquering the Chinese market, and the EU remains the premium market for Ukrainian sunflower oil. However, the decline in soybean and rapeseed oil prices in the EU may reduce the premium for sunflower oil, especially against the background of an increase in the supply of local sunflower.