The price of canola growing in the background of the recovery in oil prices

the price of rapeseed gradually recovering from a sharp drop in March caused by the collapse of oil prices and reduced demand for biodiesel through the quarantine has been imposed.

Following the rapid rise in oil prices from 20-25%, the August rapeseed futures on Euronext rose yesterday for another 4,75 €/t to 369,75 €/t or 400,74 $/t, while in March they fell to the lowest in two years, the level of 341,25 €/t

the Partial lifting of the quarantine by countries of Europe will increase the demand for motor fuel, including biofuels. But most of all on the price of rapeseed to influence the reduction of production in the EU, where this season will again be a deficit of rapeseed, despite the decline in the production of biodiesel.

According to Strategie Grains forecast, in 2020 the EU and the UK will gather of 17.02 million tonnes, while in April the figure was estimated 17.59 million tons, and in March – 17.85 million t. For comparison, in 2019, the harvest of rapeseed was the lowest in the last 13 years-16.9 million tons.

reduction in the consumption of rapeseed oil for biodiesel production will not be able to offset the decrease in production and a likely reduction in imports. Strategie Grains experts predict that since the autumn the demand for rapeseed oil in the EU will gradually increase as the recovery of demand for biodiesel.

as a result, the inventory of rapeseed oil will decrease as the amount of processing that also will decrease, can not meet the domestic demand for vegetable oil.

According to experts, the price of canola will rise after Canada and Australia complete collection of canola. But expect significant stocks of canola in Canada at the end of June 2021 will significantly increase prices for rapeseed in the EU for the winter.

in the absence of weather disasters, which would significantly affect the harvest, the prices for rapeseed in the EU will not be able to return to the levels of last winter.

Also, Strategie Grains predicts that due to the high margin of processing at the end of the current season there is a shortage of supply of rapeseed. However, the refining volume in the last quarter of the season will decrease due to falling demand for biodiesel, which is very significant.

Import of rapeseed in the EU in 2019/20 MG in comparison with the previous season, will grow by 47% to 5.3 million tonnes, with Ukraine due to the reduction of rapeseed production to 2-2. 2 million tons will be able to export to the EU only 1.8-2 mln t oilseeds in comparison with 3 million tonnes the previous season.