Rapeseed prices were supported by lower crop forecasts in the EU and India

The agency Strategie Grains, as a result of the reduction in the area of rapeseed sowing, lowered the forecast for the harvest in the EU in 2024 from 18.4 to 18.3 million tons, which will be 8% less than last year's 19.9 million tons.

A significant reduction in production in most EU countries, especially in Romania and Poland, will increase rapeseed imports to Europe, primarily from Ukraine and Australia, although the supply in these taps will be limited. Shipping problems in the Red Sea could reduce canola supplies from Australia in favor of oilseeds from Canada.

The agency's experts left the predictions of the sunflower and soybean harvest in the EU in 2024 at 10.7 million tons and 3.1 million tons, which will exceed the indicators of 2023 by 9% and 8%, respectively.

According to Reuters, in India's main agricultural regions, heavy rains and hail damaged crops of winter crops, including wheat and canola, and delayed harvesting. Hot weather is expected in the second half of March, which will be additional stress for the plants.

May rape futures on the Paris MATIF rose 2.4% for the week to €417.25/t or $452.8/t (+0.7% on the month) on forecasts of production cuts, but they remain under pressure falling prices for soybeans and other oil crops.

May canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose 1.3% last week to CAD 596/t or $439/t (-1.3% for the month).

Canadian canola remains cheaper than European canola. Therefore, in the near future, the EU may increase its purchases against the background of a reduction in supplies from Ukraine and an increase in the price of deliveries from Australia due to the blockade of shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthis.

As a result of the blocking of the border with Poland, demand prices for rapeseed in the western regions of Ukraine fell by 300-500 UAH/t to 15,000-15,200 UAH/t for FCA - farm, while in the ports the prices remained at the level of 16,000-16,200 UAH/t.

Prices for new crop canola remain at the same level and have not yet reacted to forecasts of reduced production.