Wheat prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from rising logistics costs, while stock market quotes have risen slightly

During the week, wheat quotations on world exchanges increased by 0.6-1.4% and are trading 2.3-3.9% more expensive than a month ago, against the backdrop of the blocking of supplies from the Black Sea region, however, the increase in the supply of cheap Ukrainian and Russian wheat limits further price growth. The pace of wheat exports from the USA is inferior to last year, and supplies from Ukraine and the Russian Federation increased slightly in September, despite the blocking of Black Sea ports.

During the week, December wheat futures rose:

• by 0.6% to $267/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+3.9% per month),
• by 0.1% to $291.3/t - for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (+3.1%),
• by 1.4% to $274.3/t - for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+3.6%),
• by 1.4% to €243.75/t or $280/t for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (+2.3%).

Wheat exports from the US during September 10-17 decreased by 29% compared to the previous week to 335.3 thousand tons (which is 30% lower than the corresponding figure last year), and in total since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY, they reached 6.03 million tons, which is 31.5% lower than last year's rates.

Wheat exports from Ukraine for September 21 amounted to 652 thousand tons (1.52 million tons for the same period last year), and in total since the beginning of the season reached 2.34 million tons compared to 4.17 million tons last year.

Wheat exports from the Russian Federation in the first decade of September 2026 amounted to 300 thousand tons, which is 5.9 times lower than the corresponding figure in 2025, and in general at the beginning of the season reached 5.4 million tons, which is 50% less than a year ago. According to the forecast of Rusagrotrans, wheat exports from the Russian Federation in September will amount to 2.2 million tons, since prices for Russian wheat with a protein of 12.5% remain at the level of $ 212-214 / t FOB Novorossiysk. Due to the shutdown of terminals and shelling of ships, traders are laying high premiums for risks when buying from Russian Black Sea ports, so prices for similar European wheat have risen to $ 290-292 / t FOB, and for American - to $ 300-310 / t.

In Ukraine, problems with the logistics of rail deliveries to the ports of Poland or Romania are increasing, and wagons are waiting in queues at crossings for 2-3 weeks, so an increase in export demand for wheat is not expected. In the port of Constanta, queues for acceptance have increased, so prices for Ukrainian wheat have dropped to $245-250/t.

During the week in Ukraine, export purchase prices for food wheat in Danube ports increased by $5-8/t to $170-177/t or UAH 8,200-8,800/t due to an increase in the number of traders making purchases, but prices for feed wheat remained at UAH 7,500-7,800/t or $150-155/t due to a lack of demand in Constanta.

Prices for feed wheat on an ex-elevator basis fell to UAH 5,300-5,800/t EXW due to lack of demand from exporters, who expect an increase in corn supply.

Processors in Ukraine continue to buy mainly high-quality food wheat at a price of UAH 6,500-7,000/t with delivery to the mill.