Wheat prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from low export demand and declining world prices

In their October report, USDA experts made almost no changes to the world wheat balance, but again lowered the forecast for wheat exports from the Russian Federation and left the export forecast for Ukraine unchanged , which surprised the market, because due to the blockade of Black Sea ports, export rates continue to fall in both Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

 

But even without wheat supplies from Ukraine and the Russian Federation, world wheat prices continue to fall as importers hold back purchases, so wheat exports from the US are also slowing. Further increases in logistics costs and lower world prices are putting even more pressure on domestic wheat prices in Ukraine.

 

During the week, December wheat futures fell:

• by 3% to $247/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 3.8% to $262.8/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 1.9% to $255.8/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 1% to €243.25/t or $272/t for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris.

 

Wheat exports from the US during October 1-8 amounted to 304.7 thousand tons, which is 32% less than last year, and in total since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY, they reached 6.98 million tons, which is 35.9% lower than last year's pace.

 

Wheat exports from Russian seaports in the first 10 days of October 2026 amounted to only 436 thousand tons, which is 5.3 times less than in the same period in 2025.

 

In 12 days of October, Ukraine exported 348 thousand tons of wheat (compared to 877 thousand tons last year), and in total since the beginning of the season — 3.12 (5.61) million tons.

 

Despite the blockade of Black Sea ports, exports have not stopped completely, but their pace remains significantly lower than last year. Due to the congestion of crossings at the western borders, the downtime of wagons has increased to 30-45 days, which increases the cost of logistics and reduces purchase prices.

 

In Ukraine, traders continue to lower hryvnia purchase prices due to the delay in VAT refunds, which further puts pressure on prices and reduces demand. Prices for feed wheat remain at UAH 5,000–5,500/t EXW ex-elevator, and for food wheat at UAH 6,000–6,500/t, but only a few exporters are purchasing. Processors are buying mainly high-quality food wheat at UAH 6,500–7,000/t with delivery to the mill.

 

In the Danube ports, export purchase prices for food wheat remain at $170–177/t or UAH 8,000–8,800/t, and for feed wheat at $150–155/t or UAH 7,000–7,800/t, while demand prices for feed wheat with delivery to the western border are $160–165/t.

 

Demand prices for food wheat delivered to Constanta remain at $250-260/t, but barges from the Danube remain the main delivery method.

 

Corn prices in Ukraine also continue to fall and have already dropped to UAH 5,000/t ex-elevator, which is putting pressure on wheat prices. Prices will continue to fall until ports reopen, which will not happen until the end of winter.

 

Turkey put forward an initiative to stop Russian and Ukrainian attacks on ships in the Black Sea, proposing to create two separate Black Sea corridors for Russian and Ukrainian ships, but Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov responded that Kyiv was proposing to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative and introduce a Russian-Ukrainian moratorium on attacks on ships in the Black Sea, which, in his opinion, is “completely unacceptable and unrealistic.” Moscow rejected any “half-measures” and temporary moratoriums that could give the Ukrainian side “respite.”