Wheat prices in Ukraine remain quite high, despite a 4.2% drop in Chicago wheat quotes over the week

Data from the USDA's November wheat supply and demand report continue to pressure soft wheat quotes in Chicago and Kansas, which lost 4.2% over the week, but in Ukraine, due to limited supply at ports, purchase prices for food wheat remained unchanged, and for feed wheat even increased.

After USDA experts raised their forecast for global wheat production in the 2025/26 MY to 828 million tons, IGC experts also raised their estimate for global wheat production from 827 to 830 million tons (compared to 799 million tons in the previous season).

Under the pressure of fundamental factors of increasing production and inventories, quotes for US soft wheat collapsed again after some attempts to recover. During the week, December wheat futures fell:

• by 4.2% to $191.9/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 4.2% to $186.4/t - for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 1% to $209/t - for HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 0.9% to €189.75/t or $218.5/t - for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris.

Even a sharp increase in wheat exports from the USA during November 13-20 (compared to the previous week) by 92% to 474.5 thousand tons could not support the quotation. Total exports in the 2025/26 MY reached 12.84 million tons, which is 19.7% ahead of last year's pace.

Additionally, prices are being pressured by the high rates and conditions of winter wheat sowing in major exporting countries. According to USDA, in the USA, as of November 23, 97% of the planned area had already been sown with winter wheat, which corresponds to the 5-year average, and seedlings had been obtained on 87% of the area. According to FranceAgriMer, as of November 17, 95% of the area had been sown with winter soft wheat in France, which exceeds last year's 88% and the average of the last 5 years (90%).

In Ukraine, as of November 18, 4.66 million hectares or 93% of the area was sown with winter wheat.

Purchase prices for food wheat in Ukraine remained at $218–223/t during the week, while prices for feed wheat increased by another $1–3/t to $210–212/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. Prices in hryvnia increased by UAH 100–150/t to UAH 10,600–10,750/t for food wheat and UAH 10,150–10,300/t for feed wheat, receiving additional support from the appreciation of the dollar against the hryvnia.

The results of the tender in Saudi Arabia show a further decrease in prices with delivery in March-April, so we should not expect an increase in wheat prices in Ukraine.

The General Authority for Food Security of Saudi Arabia (GFSA) purchased 300,000 tons of durum milling wheat of any origin with a protein of 12.5% and delivery in March-April 2026 at a price of $257.96-259.74/t C&F, while wheat with delivery in December-January was purchased at $262.8-265.4/t C&F.