Wheat prices in Ukraine reached the highest level during the war and stopped growth
Export purchase prices in the Black Sea ports of Ukraine reached the highest level since pre-war times of $215-220/t or UAH 9,700-10,000/t for food wheat and $200-203/t or UAH 9,100-9,300/t for fodder wheat with delivery to the port , after which the growth was stopped.
They are supported by high prices for European wheat and the results of the tender in Egypt, where GASC purchased Ukrainian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% and delivery on July 5-15 at a price of $268.8/t FOB Black Sea, which corresponds to $245-250/ t CRT port.
Recent rains are improving the condition of the wheat crop, but the potential for a high yield has been lost due to the extremely dry weather in May. According to the Ukrhydrometeorological center, May 2024 became one of the driest months in Ukraine in the last 30 years, and in Cherkasy region in the last 100 years. Drought phenomena were observed in most areas of Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, southern and central Dnipropetrovsk, and western Poltava regions.
On June 4, 90% of the planned areas were sown with hot crops in the Russian Federation. In the regions where spring crops are grown, there were good rainfalls, which made it possible to increase the total area under winter and summer crops by 300,000 hectares to 84.5 million hectares. In the South and North Caucasus, the heat will reach 30-35 o C, which will accelerate the ripening of wheat, which will begin to be harvested in a week.
The SovEkon agency lowered the forecast for the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation from 82.1 to 80.7 million tons, although back in March it estimated it at 94 million tons.
On the Euronex exchange, September wheat futures fell 1.7% yesterday to €254.25/t or $277/t (-3.5% for the week, +8.2% for the month) under pressure from low export rates and tender results in Algeria.
According to the European Commission, in 2023/24 MR (as of June 2), the EU exported 28.2 million tons of wheat (France - 8.2 million tons, Romania - 6.2 million tons) of the projected USDA 35 million tons, which is 5 % inferior to last year's rates. At the same time, wheat imports to the EU increased by 2% compared to the previous season to 8.7 million tons (with the USDA forecast of 13.5 million tons), of which Ukraine supplied 6.3 million tons. Spain imported 5.3 million tons of wheat, and Italy - 1.2 million tons.
The Algerian state agency OAIC bought 840,000 t of soft wheat of arbitrary origin for August delivery at an average price of $279/t C&F in a tender on June 4, while Egypt bought wheat at $302.2/t C&F the other day.
