Oil prices remain at a high level, despite the increase in stocks in the US and supplies from the Russian Federation

Global oil prices remain high thanks to speculative demand, the ongoing conflict in Gaza and new Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. According to the CFTC, traders increased their net long position in Brent oil futures and options to a one-year high, despite an increase in US inventories and supplies from the Russian Federation. Oilseeds and vegetable oils are also supported by higher oil prices, although they remain under pressure from seasonal increases in production and supply.

May Brent crude oil futures rose 1.6% to $86.8/barrel on Monday and fell 0.6% to $86.1/barrel on Tuesday and Wednesday (0% for the week, +5 % per month), almost without reacting to the statistics.

The weekly report of the EIA association showed an unexpected increase in crude oil stocks in the US by 3.17 million barrels and gasoline - by 1.3 million barrels, although analysts expected a decrease of 1 million barrels and 1.7 million barrels, respectively.

After the attacks by Ukrainian UAVs, the Russian Federation reduced fuel exports, but increased supplies of crude oil. According to Bloomberg, during March 14-20, Russian refineries processed 5.03 million barrels of oil, which is 400,000 barrels/day lower than the average for March 1-13 and the lowest level of processing in the last 10 months. At the same time, the export of crude oil from the Russian Federation for March 17-24 increased compared to the previous week by 360,000 barrels/day to 3.32 million barrels/day.

Recently, delays in payments (some up to several months) for oil and fuel to Russian oil companies have increased, as banks in China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are afraid of falling under secondary US sanctions, so they require written guarantees from their clients that that among the beneficiaries or participants of the agreement there is no individual or legal entity from the SDN (Special Designated Nationals) sanction list of the United States.

Oil prices are supporting forecasts that the OPEC+ meeting on April 3 will keep crude oil production quotas unchanged, as well as the possible spread of the war between Israel and Hamas to Lebanon, as Hezbollah and Israel have been shelling each other almost daily since October 7. If the negotiations between Hamas and Israel on the cessation of hostilities in Gaza are successful in exchange of 40 prisoners for more than 800 Palestinians, the speculative mood in the oil market will decrease in the coming weeks.