Oil prices fell 5% amid US talks with Iran instead of the strikes expected by the market and announcements of Venezuelan oil supplies to India

Oil prices rose 10% last week after Trump called on Iran to make a deal with the US to avoid military intervention, especially amid an increase in the US military presence near Iran. But yesterday, President Trump said the US was in talks with Iran, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that US Representative Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were due to meet in Istanbul on Friday.

Oil prices were also affected by the US President's statement that Indian Prime Minister Modi, in a conversation with him, had agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil and increase purchases from the US and, possibly, Venezuela.

According to Reuters, crude oil exports from Venezuela increased from 498,000 barrels/day in December to 800,000 barrels/day in January, which is increasing pressure on global prices.

Yesterday, April Brent crude futures fell 5% to $66.2/barrel (+1.8% for the week, +7.6% for the month).

Oil prices were also weighed down by yesterday's 25.65% drop in March US natural gas futures (NGH26) to a 3-week low after temperatures rose above freezing. US gas futures rose to a 3-year high last Wednesday on expectations of a powerful cold front.

The end of the speculative rise in prices for gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies and the sharp collapse in quotes, as well as the strengthening of the dollar against other currencies, will increase pressure on oil prices in the near term.

According to Vortexa, oil stocks on tankers that had been idle for at least 7 days as of January 30 fell by 6.2% to 103 million barrels, but overall remain 20-30% higher than average stocks last year.

Quotations for vegetable oils and agricultural commodities practically did not react to the speculative increase in oil prices last week, but they started this week in the red zone due to the beginning of a seasonal increase in grain supply and low export demand.