Corn prices in Ukraine have slightly decreased after reaching a seasonal high

Increased demand for corn from Turkey in April led to an increase in purchase prices in Ukraine to $230/t delivered to the port, which was the maximum figure this season, although it is significantly lower than the level of last season when prices were $245/t. We also recall that in August last year, a short-term demand for 5,000 tons of corn led to a price jump to $265/t.

 

The fall in oil prices slightly reduced corn quotes , as a result of which prices in Ukraine also fell at the end of last week.

 

During the week, export prices for corn in Ukraine increased by another 150-200 UAH/t to 11,300-11,350 UAH/t or $227-228/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, and the supply from farmers increased.

 

According to European traders, Turkish importers have already purchased 580.5 thousand tons of the quota for the supply of 3 million tons of corn with a reduced duty of 5%, which is valid from April 20 to July 31, 2026.

 

At the same time, Ukraine alone exported about 1 million tons of corn to Turkey in April, so the estimate of imports may be underestimated, and given the active deliveries from Ukraine in May, the quota may be closed by the end of May.

 

Turkey will begin harvesting its new corn crop in August. The US Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that Turkey will harvest 7.9 million tons of corn in 2025, compared to 6.8 million tons in 2024.

 

High rates of corn planting in the US (where 38% of the planned area has already been sown) and rainfall forecasts in the "corn belt" are holding back the growth of quotes.

 

Over the past week, July corn futures in Chicago fell 1.7% to $184/t (+2% month-on-month), although they had recently risen to a season-high of $191/t. December futures fell 0.8% to $192.9/t (+2.9% month-on-month), also renewing a yearly high of $198.4/t.

 

StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's corn harvest by 1.3 million tons to 137 million tons, while AgroConsult estimates the harvest at 140.5 million tons, significantly exceeding the USDA forecast of 132 million tons. Therefore, in the event of favorable weather for sowing in Brazil, the balance for the 2025/26 MY may be adjusted.