Corn prices in Ukraine continue to rise

Against the backdrop of speculative growth in world corn prices, lower freight costs, and limited supply from farmers, export demand prices for corn in Ukraine this week increased by $1-3/t to $210-212/t or UAH 10,000-10,150/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, with prices for March deliveries exceeding $213/t.

 

This year, Ukrainian farmers profitably sold rapeseed, soybeans, and sunflowers at high prices, so they have no need for funds and are holding back sales of wheat and corn amid uncertainty about the hryvnia exchange rate and in anticipation of price increases.

 

But it is worth recalling that with a forecast for 2024/25 MY corn exports of 23 million tons, as of January 22, only 11.6 million tons have been shipped (12 million tons for the same period last year). Currently, the main suppliers of corn on the world market remain Ukraine and the USA, but problems may arise with the supply of American corn to Mexico in February, and a new crop from Argentina will enter the markets in March.

 

Recent rains in Argentina have eased the heat and improved the corn crop, but speculators have boosted corn demand amid delays in planting the second crop in Brazil due to heavy rainfall in Brazil.

 

According to AgRural, as of January 15, in Brazil, first-crop corn has been harvested on 4.1% of the area, and soybeans on 1.2% (6% last year), so only 0.3% of the planned area has been sown with second-crop corn. Abundant rains have created significant reserves of soil moisture, so Brazilian farmers still have the opportunity to quickly sow corn.

 

After Trump's inauguration, March corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose to a 7-month high of $192.9/t, but fell 1.2% yesterday to $190.5/t (+6.8% month-on-month).

 

President Trump has not yet imposed tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, but he said that a 25% tariff for Mexico and Canada would go into effect on February 1, and a 10% tariff for China, which somewhat supported markets.

 

At the same time, the US is increasing corn exports, which in the week of January 10-16 increased by 6.9% compared to the previous week to 1.541 million tons, and in total for the season reached 19.25 million tons, which is 30.5% ahead of last year's pace.

 

S&P Global has raised its forecast for US corn plantings in 2025 by 700,000 acres to 93.5 million acres compared to its December estimate, which will increase pressure on quotes in April, especially against the backdrop of the successful completion of corn planting in Brazil.