Corn prices in Ukraine continue to fall in anticipation of a new decline in Chicago quotes

Overcrowding of terminals on the western borders of Ukraine and slow formation and departure of European trains continue to increase the cost of road and rail logistics. High delivery costs actually reduce corn prices in Ukraine and increase pressure on purchase prices in the central and eastern regions.

 

Corn harvesting in Ukraine is accelerating: 294.2 thousand hectares, or 7% of the area, have already been threshed, and 1.623 million tons of grain have been obtained with an average yield of 5.52 t/ha.

 

Corn exports from Ukraine in the first 5 days of October amounted to only 17 thousand tons, compared to 59 thousand tons in October 2025. At the same time, 1.95 million tons of corn have been exported since the beginning of the season, compared to 974 thousand tons a year earlier.

The slow current pace of shipments amid increasing supply from the new crop is creating additional pressure on the domestic corn market.

 

November corn futures in Paris increased by 4.4% to €276/t or $309/t (+3% per month) during the week.

At the same time, the market is increasingly focusing on March contracts, the difference with which is about €4/t. This quotation structure may be a signal for Ukrainian farmers to intensify corn sales for delivery to the EU in January-February.

 

Over the week, corn purchase prices in Ukraine decreased by another 300–500 UAH/t to 4,800–5,400 UAH/t on EXW-elevator terms.

At the same time, demand prices at Danube terminals and western terminals remain at the level of 8,000–8,500 UAH/t, or $170–175/t. The large difference between prices at grain elevators and border terminals actually reflects the high cost of logistics and the shortage of capacity on western routes.

 

December corn futures in Chicago were almost unchanged for the week and are trading at $197.6/t, but have lost 6.2% for the month.

Pressure on corn quotes in the US is being exacerbated by larger stocks at the start of the season and accelerated harvest.

 

Analysts are raising their US corn crop forecasts ahead of the USDA's October report. If the agency also raises its production estimate, Chicago corn futures could continue to decline to $185-190/t, putting pressure on European quotes and corn prices in Ukraine.

As of October 4, 23% of the US corn crop has been threshed, which is 4% less than the average for the past five years — 27%.

 

Meanwhile, rainfall in Brazil and Argentina is helping to accelerate corn and soybean planting and build up moisture reserves. Favorable weather conditions may also encourage an expansion of planted areas, which will put additional pressure on global corn prices in the future.