The global balance for soybeans from the USDA remained almost unchanged

2019-09-13 12:03:05
Machine translation
The global balance for soybeans from the USDA remained almost unchanged

September report USDA at the Soi meet the expectations of the experts were almost unchanged compared to the August balance.

 

the main attention of traders was focused on the forecast of soybean production in the United States that could significantly affect the world balance. However, due to the warm weather in September production estimate was reduced only by 1.29 million tonnes to 98,87 million tonnes due to reduced yields from 48.5 to 47.9 bushels/acre, while analysts forecast it at the level of 47.2 bushels/acre. The estimation of area for harvest of soybeans in the U.S. left at 75.9 million acres, which corresponds to the average forecast of analytical Agency.

 

a Reduction in US production will be offset by increased soybean crop in Canada, India and China.

 

the Forecast for world consumption was reduced compared to the August report by 0.91 million MT up to 353,4 million tonnes for China, the estimated consumption was left unchanged, although MSG China has lowered the forecast of consumption and imports of soybeans.

 

Due to the growth of volumes of processing and export of soy from the US in 2018/19 MG carry-over stocks will decrease by 1.77 million tons, so the initial world stocks in 2019/20 MG will decrease by 2.12 million tonnes to 112,41 million tons And a significant reduction of reserves in Argentina and the U.S., partially offset by their growth in Brazil, Iran and India will lead to a reduction of ending stocks in 2019/20 MG at 2.55 million tonnes up to 99.19 million tons.

 

Despite a neutral report USDA soybean futures in Chicago yesterday rose by 3.17% to 328,5 $/t on the news about the acquisition of Chinese companies 600 tonnes of us soybeans in the October-December period. There is information that on the background of mutual easing of trade sanctions between countries, the PRC government has provided its companies tariff incentives for purchasing 5 million tons of soybeans from the United States.

 

Weekly soybean exports from the U.S. totaled 1.17 million tons, far exceeding expert expectations and maintain costs.

 

the Intention of China to allow the import of 5 million tons of soybean meal from Argentina additional pressure on the price of soybeans. However, players hope that the reconciliation process will take some more time that will allow us to accelerate sales of soybeans from the United States.

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