World sugar prices have fallen by 8-15% since the beginning of September and will remain under pressure from increasing supply in 2026.

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that in the 2025/26 MY, the world sugar balance surplus will be 1.625 million tons.

The main factor in the revision of the balance was the forecast increase in world sugar production to 181.767 million tons, which will exceed the figure of the previous season by 5.552 million tons. Sugar production is expected to increase in India, Thailand and Pakistan.

World sugar consumption in the 2025/26 MY will increase by 1.011 million tons compared to the previous season to 180.142 million tons, and the ratio of ending sugar stocks to consumption, according to ISO estimates, will decrease from 563.12% to 52.74%.

According to ISO, in the 2024/25 MY, the global sugar balance deficit decreased to 2.916 million tons due to a good harvest in the main producing countries of the Southern Hemisphere.

China increased its sugar imports by 39% to 750,000 tons in October 2025, and in total, in the first 10 months of 2025, it purchased 3.9 million tons of sugar, which is 14% more than the same period last year. One of the main reasons for this growth was a significant decrease in world sugar prices to a 5-year low.

The main supplier of sugar to China was Brazil, which shipped 359 thousand tons of sugar to China in September alone. In October, Brazil exported a record 4.2 million tons of sugar to various world markets, of which 619.35 thousand tons were to China, which is 58% higher than last year.

On the London Stock Exchange, December futures for white sugar No. 5 have risen 4% in the past two weeks after a prolonged 12% fall in October and are trading at $415/t, 15% lower than three months ago.

US No. 11 cane sugar futures fell 15% in October, but have risen 4.6% in the past 2 weeks to $14.85/lb or $327/t, having lost 8.8% since the beginning of September.

In Ukraine, sugar prices have fallen by 30% since the beginning of the season to UAH 20-21/kg amid falling prices on world markets and supply restrictions in the EU, and no significant price increase is expected in the coming months.

For 9 months of 2025, Ukraine exported 298.7 thousand tons of sugar worth 151.94 million dollars, which is significantly less than for the same period in 2024 (476.4 thousand tons worth 283 million dollars). According to the Ukrsugar Association, in October, 44.4 thousand tons of sugar worth over $20 million were exported, and the main importers were: Lebanon (48% of total exports), Syria and North Macedonia, while supplies to the EU amounted to only about 2%. According to the additionally granted quotas, by the end of 2025, Ukraine can export an additional 46.6 thousand tons of sugar to the EU.