World wheat prices fall on forecasts of increased production in Russia

Yesterday, wheat quotes on world stock exchanges continued to fall amid improved conditions for sowing in the northern hemisphere and precipitation in the southern hemisphere, as well as updated forecasts for an improvement in the wheat harvest in Russia.

SovEcon experts raised the forecast for wheat production in Russia in 2021 by 0.2 million tons to 75.6 million, as the high yield of spring wheat in Siberia partially compensates for the low indicators in other regions. According to SovEcon estimates, Siberia will harvest 10.7 million tons of wheat this year, which is 1 million tons higher than the 2020 harvest and will be the best indicator of the last 12 years.

Recall that the wheat harvest in Russia is estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture of the country at 81 million tons, and USDA experts – at 72.5 million tons.

As of September 21, 72.6 million tons of wheat with a yield of 2.85 t/ha were threshed in Russia from 25.5 million hectares or 89% of the area. It remains to thresh another 3 million hectares, from which at least 3-4 million tons of wheat will be harvested.

December Black Sea wheat futures on Chicago SWOT fell another ще 3.75/ton to.307.25/ton yesterday, losing 2.5% in two days. The lack of active purchases by importers of Black Sea wheat increases pressure on prices, which remain at F 300/ton FOB.

On the US stock exchanges, wheat quotes fell yesterday following corn prices and amid news of increased export sales. In two sessions, quotes fell by 2.7-3.3%, which increased pressure on the prices of European and Black Sea wheat.

December US futures fell yesterday:

• by 3 3.85 / ton to Чикаго 253.5/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 3 3.49 / ton to H 253.6/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 2 2.3/ton to.325.9 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

The increase in wheat exports from the EU last week to 1 million tons could not support quotes.

• December wheat futures on Paris ' Euronext fell another €1.5/ton yesterday to €244.5/ton or.286.3/ton.

In Ukraine, purchase prices for wheat are growing contrary to the world prices, and have reached the level of 8650-8700 UAH/ton or 285-287 $/ton in ports. traders buy the necessary batches to close contracts before port terminals start working with corn.