Global fertilizer prices have reached record levels, but what to expect next?

The fertilizer season has already begun, and the situation in the Middle East, home to the world's major fertilizer producers and exporters, remains tense. So, having analyzed the price trends in the fertilizer market over the past week, we tried to understand what to expect next.

 

The blockade of the Persian Gulf has led to a sharp increase in oil and fertilizer prices, which will affect the cost of agricultural products worldwide and cause an increase in prices for grains and oilseeds.

 

The war in the Middle East has had the biggest impact on the urea market. Iran has banned the export of urea and ammonia, and attacked fertilizer plants in the region. Against the backdrop of supply shortages from Iran and Qatar and seasonal demand increases in the US and Europe, world urea prices are rising rapidly.

 

The Russian Federation's month-long ban on the export of ammonium nitrate, amid increasing demand in Ukraine and Turkey and rising urea prices, is heating up ammonium sulfate prices, which in China have already reached $240-250/t FOB.

 

China has suspended exports of superphosphates and diammonium phosphate, which has exacerbated the shortage of phosphates on the global market. As a result, their prices are constantly increasing, especially against the backdrop of uncertainty about supplies from the Middle East.

 

The potash fertilizer market remains the most stable, but rising freight costs are starting to put pressure on suppliers' margins. In China, prices have fallen due to oversupply, while in Brazil and the US they have risen moderately. However, the main factor influencing prices remains the increase in the cost of supplies via the Red Sea.

 

Sulfuric acid prices are rising, especially in America, due to both logistical problems and a shortage of sulfur. In fact, the finished acid is starting to replace sulfur processing in fertilizer production. The shortage of available volumes and the high cost of replacing sulfur will contribute to further price increases.

 

Prices for the main types of fertilizers as of March 20, shown in the table, were presented in a report by the Infoindustry publication.

 

 

Source / Consumer Market	Type (FOB/CFR)	Price ( USD /t, unless otherwise stated)	Trend
Urea
Exporters (FOB)
Black Sea	FOB Spot	650–720	↑
Baltic Sea	FOB Spot	600–650	↑
Middle East	FOB Spot	730–760	↑
Egypt	FOB Spot	710–730	↑
Algeria	FOB Spot	680–754	↑
USA, New Orleans (NOLA)	FOB barge	639–690 (USD/piece)	↑
Consumption markets (CFR/FCA):
Brazil	CFR Spot	690–720	↑
Southeast Asia	CFR Spot	735–775	↑
South Korea	CFR Spot	735–780	↑
France	FCA Spot	695–710 (EUR/t)	↑
Ammonium nitrate (AN):
Black Sea	FOB Spot	475–527	↑
Baltic Sea	FOB Spot	410–450	↑
Ukraine	EXW Spot	27,500–28,000 (UAH/t)	↑
UAN:
USA, New Orleans (NOLA)	FOB barge 32%	425–465 (USD/piece)	↑
France, Rouen	FCA 30%	430–435 (EUR/t)	—
Ammonium sulfate (AS):
China – granulated	FOB Spot	240–250	↑
Brazil	CFR Spot	275–295	↑
Diammonium phosphate ( DAP)
Saudi Arabia	FOB Spot	750–770	↑
India	CFR Spot	790–805	↑
USA, New Orleans (NOLA)	FOB barge	639–685 (USD/piece)	↑
MAP:
Brazil	CFR Spot	820–850	↑
Morocco	FOB Spot	783–860	↑
TSP (triple superphosphate):
Morocco	FOB Spot	620–660	↑
Brazil	CFR Spot	650–680	↑
Potassium fertilizers (Potash – MOP)
Brazil – granules.	CFR Spot	380–390	↑
Southeast Asia – standard	CFR Spot	360–390	—
Vancouver (Vancouver) - granules.	FOB Spot	339–372	↑
Baltic Sea – granules.	FOB Spot	328–360	↑
China (China) - port	FCA Spot	3,000–3,580 (RMB/t)	↓
Sulfuric Acid
Chile	CFR Spot	220–240	↑
Brazil	CFR Spot	195–205	↑
India	CFR Spot	185–190	↑
North-West Europe (NW Europe)	FOB Spot	135–145	↑
China	FOB Spot	150–165	↑