World soybean prices continue to fall, but demand and prices remain high in Ukraine

Favorable weather conditions for soybean sowing in South America are boosting sales of the old crop, which, against the backdrop of high soybean harvest rates in the US, continues to put pressure on soybean quotes in Chicago. However, there is still a shortage of soybean supply in Ukraine, so prices are stable for now.

 

According to the CONAB report, as of October 23, 2026, 42.8% of the planned area was sown with soybeans in Brazil (40.2% on average over five years on that date), in particular, in the leading soybean-producing state of Mato Grosso, 75.8% of the area was sown (70% on average over 5 years).

 

According to SECEX, soybean exports from Brazil for the 23 days of October amounted to 4.818 million tons (compared to 6.73 million tons for the same period in October 2025), but the average export price increased by 14.4% compared to last year to $489.3/ton.

 

According to USDA NASS, as of October 25, soybeans in the US have been harvested on 79% of the planned area, which is 2% higher than the average of the last 5 years.

 

Export sales of soybeans from the United States during October 15-22 decreased by 9.3% compared to the previous week to 2.576 million tons, of which China purchased 1.627 million and Spain - 225 thousand tons.

 

November soybean futures in Chicago have fallen another 2.8% to $464/t over the past 7 days (-6% per month), completely erasing the speculative growth in August and September caused by expectations of a lower harvest in the US and increased exports to China, but remain 10.9% more expensive than a year ago.

 

Brazil continues to increase its soybean and soybean meal shipments as a weaker currency makes Brazilian goods more competitive. This lowers soybean meal prices in Brazil and China, putting pressure on global soybean prices.

 

In Ukraine, rapeseed and sunflower prices continue to fall, but soybean prices remain stable due to high demand from processors and exporters amid subdued sales from farmers. However, producers should take into account that traditional buyers of Ukrainian soybeans, including Egypt, Turkey and the EU, are actively switching to affordable large-scale shipments from Brazil and the US due to delays in deliveries from Ukraine caused by poor logistics.

 

During the week, purchase prices for GMO soybeans from processors remained at the level of 15,500–17,000 UAH/t, and export prices for GMO soybeans remained at the level of 19,000 UAH/t or $420/t with delivery to Danube ports and $420-440/t with delivery by railcars to the western border.

 

As of October 26, 3.18 million tons of soybeans were threshed in Ukraine from 91% of the area or 1.468 million hectares, with an average yield of 2.17 tons/hectare.

 

In the 22 days of October, Ukraine exported only 79 thousand tons of soybeans, as well as 18.8 thousand tons of soybean oil and 54 thousand tons of cake, which is equivalent to 90 thousand tons of soybeans.

 

Rising prices for road and rail logistics practically paralyze export sales of cheaper crops (barley, corn, and wheat), and only expensive oilseeds continue to be exported, which sharply reduces domestic prices for feed crops, and after them - domestic demand for sunflower and soybean meal, so we expect a further decline in soybean prices.