The sharp fall in the real exchange rate has caused soybean meal prices to collapse in Brazil and China, which is increasing pressure on prices in Ukraine.

Uncertainty over future fiscal policy following Brazil's presidential election has led to a sharp decline in the local real. The dollar rose 10% against the real in trading on October 26.

Against this backdrop, soybean meal prices for December delivery fell by $14.22/t on that day (the largest daily drop since April) to the lowest level since August 24, 2026, at $384.92/t FOB Paranagua.

The depreciation of the real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian products on the world market and increases the pressure on quotations.

On the SWOT exchange in Chicago, soybean futures fell by 2%, and December soybean meal futures fell by 8.3% in two weeks to $369/t, which will increase pressure on soybean and soybean meal prices in the EU and Ukraine in the near future.

The depreciation of the real sharply increased soybean sales by local producers. On October 26 alone, farmers sold about 800,000 tons of old and new crop soybeans, which corresponds to the sales volume of the entire previous week.

Despite the decline in export prices, traders do not yet expect significant changes in soybean meal supplies from Brazil. According to the forecast of S&P Global Energy CERA, in 2025/26 MY Brazil will export 26.5 million tons of soybean meal, and in 2026/27 MY – 28 million tons, remaining the world's second largest exporter of soybean meal after Argentina.

Brazil exported 1.1 million tonnes of soybean meal in the first 11 working days of October, up 19% from the previous week and 3% from a year ago. At this rate, shipments could reach 2.3 million tonnes by the end of October, up from a previous forecast of 2.2 million tonnes.

Soybean meal prices in China continue to fall, and in the 26 days of October they decreased by 3% from 3400 yuan/t to 3298 yuan/t or $495/t. At the same time, soybean imports remain active. In October, they may amount to 8.5 million tons, and in November-December - almost 9.5 million tons. The increase in processing led to an increase in soybean meal stocks to 1.09 million tons, which exceeds the corresponding figures of previous years.

Losses in livestock farming are forcing pig farms to limit the number of livestock, so feed mills are trying not to create stocks, purchasing only the necessary volumes of raw materials.