Soybean quotes fall amid upbeat USDA soybean balance sheets for FY 2023/24 and 2024/25

Oilseeds balance sheets for FY 2024/25 are unchanged in July's USDA WASDE Supply and Demand Report, as lower global sunflower production will be offset by higher canola yields, leaving oilseed prices largely unchanged.

USDA experts left the soybean crop forecast in Brazil in 2023/24 at the level of 153 (162) million tons, while the local agency Conab estimates it at 147.3 million tons. For Argentina, the crop forecast was lowered by 0.5 to 49.5 ( 25) million tons based on the data of the Ministry of Agriculture of the country. Soybean export forecast from Brazil and Argentina for 2023/24 MR increased by 1 million tons to 103 and 5.6 million tons, respectively, and import forecast to China - by 3 million tons to a record 108 million tons, amid larger than expected deliveries in the 4th quarter.

China, according to customs data, in January-June decreased soybean imports compared to the same period last year by 2.2% to 48.48 million tons.

Compared to the June estimates , the global balance of soybeans for the 2024/25 FY has undergone the following changes:

• Initial reserves estimate increased by 0.18 to 111.25 million tonnes (100.39 million tonnes in FY 2023/24) after balance adjustment for FY 2023/24.
• The global production forecast has been reduced by 0.41 to 421.85 million tons, which will exceed the 2023/24 MR indicator by 6.7% (395.41 million tons) and by 11.6% - the 2022/23 MR indicator (378.4 million tons). for the USA, the estimate was reduced by 0.4 to 120.7 (113.34) million tons due to a reduction in the sowing area, although analysts' estimates were more pessimistic.
• The estimate of world consumption was reduced by 0.09 to 401.54 (382.5) million tons, which will be significantly lower than the level of production.
• The global export forecast was left at the level of 180.2 (175.13) million tons.
• The estimate of global ending stocks was reduced by 0.14 to 127.76 million tons (111.25 million tons, 99.7 million tons and 100.3 million tons), although analysts estimated them at 127.19 million tons. For the United States, the estimate was reduced by 0.53 to 11.85 million tons, which will still exceed the 2023/24 MR indicator by 26%.

According to the report, November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell by 0.2% to $391.41/t (-7.7% compared to the data after the June report).

Large funds increased their net short positions to a record 172,605,000 contracts on July 9, indicating higher price expectations.

The forecast of global rapeseed production in 2024/25 was increased by 0.8 to 87.9 (88.75) million tons, in particular for Canada – by 0.4 to 20 million tons and the EU – by 0.15 to 18.9 ( 20) million tons. The estimate of rapeseed exports in 2024/25 MR was increased by 0.4 to 17.3 (16.7) million tons, in particular for Canada - by 0.4 to 7.45 million tons.

August rapeseed futures on the MATIF exchange in Paris fell 0.4% to €474.5/t or $517.5/t (+2% for the month) on Friday amid heatwaves in Ukraine and the east EU, which worsens the prospects of the harvest.

The forecast of world sunflower production in 2024/25 was reduced by 0.6 to 54.8 (55.14) million tons, in particular for Ukraine – by 0.2 to 14.5 (14.5) million tons and the Russian Federation – by 0 .5 to 16.5 (17.1) million tons, while for China the estimate was increased by 0.15 to 1.75 million tons, and for Turkey it was left at the level of 1.68 (1.55) million tons. sunflower consumption was reduced by 0.6 to 54.9 million tons, and processing – by 0.57 to 5.8 million tons. For Ukraine, the estimate of processing was reduced by 200,000 tons, for the Russian Federation – by 500,000 tons. of sunflower in 2024/25 MR increased by 0.1 to 2.6 million tons, primarily for China.