Weak demand and expensive logistics continue to put pressure on wheat prices in Ukraine

Delays in wheat supplies from Ukraine and the Russian Federation are forcing many importers to postpone purchases to the second half of the season. Therefore, demand prices on world exchanges and physical markets remain relatively stable, while domestic prices in Ukraine continue to decline due to complex and expensive export logistics.

 

During the week, December futures for US wheat were virtually unchanged:

• soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago rose in price by 0.5% to $254.4/t;

• HRW durum wheat in Kansas City fell by 0.5% to $272.7/t;

• Spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis rose 1% to $260.7/t.

 

At the same time, December soft wheat quotes on Euronext in Paris jumped 5.4% to €245.75/t or $275.3/t in a week, supported by the decline in the euro from $1.14 to $1.12 per euro.

 

Wheat exports from the US fell by 10.3% to 302.3 thousand tons between September 24 and October 1, down 49% from a year earlier, suggesting buyers are in no hurry to replace Black Sea wheat with more expensive American wheat.

Since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY, wheat exports from the United States have amounted to 6.67 million tons, which is 35% lower than last year's pace.

 

In the first 5 days of October, Ukraine exported 118 thousand tons of wheat compared to 383 thousand tons last year, and since the beginning of the season - 2.89 million tons compared to 5.12 million tons.

Despite the closed Black Sea ports, exports have not completely stopped, but their pace remains significantly lower than last year.

 

After the Ukrainian attack on Russian grain terminals, shipments through Novorossiysk decreased from approximately 2.4 million tons in September 2025 to 177.8 thousand tons in September 2026, i.e. by 13.5 times.

Taman is completely stopped, and Tuapse is operating with restrictions: 102.7 thousand tons compared to 203.3 thousand tons a year earlier, which corresponds to a drop of 49.5%. Novorossiysk historically provided 70–75% of Russian grain exports.

 

According to updated data, as of October 1, 2026, wheat exports from the Russian Federation since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY amounted to 4.5 million tons, which is 62.8% less than last year — 12.1 million tons. In September 2026, exports decreased by 74% to 1.7 million tons compared to 6.5 million tons a year earlier.

 

Egypt also reduced purchases due to the increase in wheat prices. In September, the country imported only 362.5 thousand tons of wheat, which is 76.6% less than in September 2025, when it imported 1.548 million tons.

The largest supplier remained the Russian Federation — 142.7 thousand tons, or 39.4% of imports. Ukraine supplied 132.8 thousand tons, or 36.6%, Romania — 55.7 thousand tons, Canada — 31.4 thousand tons.

Importers are postponing some purchases until later in anticipation of the resumption of supplies from Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

 

In Ukraine, logistics to the ports of Poland and Romania continue to become more expensive, as wagons stand idle for 2–4 weeks due to reloading delays.

Traders have reduced purchase prices by UAH 300–500/t to UAH 5,000–5,500/t EXW free elevator for feed wheat and UAH 6,000–6,500/t for food wheat over the past week. Processors are purchasing mainly high-quality food wheat at UAH 6,500–7,000/t with delivery to the mill.

 

In the Danube ports, export purchase prices for food wheat remain at $170–177/t or UAH 8,000–8,800/t, and for feed wheat at $150–155/t or UAH 7,000–7,800/t. At the same time, due to continued attacks on ships and port infrastructure, some traders are already reducing purchase prices.

 

Favorable weather for sowing winter wheat in the USA, EU, Russia and Ukraine may also increase pressure on prices in the second half of the season, especially if the crops enter the winter in good condition and do not suffer significant losses.