Five charts that define agricultural markets in 2024
Here is an analysis of the situation in global agricultural markets in 2025 from Reuters analyst Karen Brown.
Funds
In 2024, the US corn yield exceeded last year's record by 3%, but by August 2025, domestic supplies will decrease compared to last year, although according to previous forecasts they were supposed to grow by 17%.
Low prices throughout the year have supported corn demand, forcing SWOT speculators to move from record bearish bets in July to bullish ones in November. As of mid-December, the funds’ net long positions were the largest in two years, which is unusual for speculators trading a near-record U.S. crop. Their optimism about corn is also surprising given the pessimistic expectations for soybeans and wheat, so this dynamic is worth watching ahead of 2025.
Managed cash net position on corn futures and options on SWOT.
Low prices
The most active futures on the SWOT for corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal and oil have fallen to 4-year lows in recent months. About $50 billion in equity value has already been lost due to the current dual listing scheme.
Soybeans and soybean meal were the hardest hit. Soybeans fell 26% in the year, the biggest annual drop in two decades and matching the 2014 decline. Soybean meal also fell by a similar amount. In 2014 and 2024, global soybean production increased significantly without a corresponding increase in consumption.
Wheat, corn, and soybean oil prices fell more in 2023 than in 2024 as current supplies are less burdensome.
Indexed price indicators of grains and oilseeds on the SWOT in 202
Palm oil vs. soybean oil
Over the past 4 months, palm oil, the world's most common vegetable oil, has been more expensive than soybean oil, its closest competitor, indicating a shift in price dynamics among vegetable oils.
Global palm oil production has declined over the past year, but the market expects it to recover in 2025. At the same time, the largest producer of the oil, Indonesia, is reducing exports and increasing the use of the oil in biofuel production.
Low soybean oil prices are due not only to significant global soybean production and processing, but also to low biofuel use in the US, especially given competition from cheap imported feedstocks such as used cooking oil.
Between soybean and palm oil on SWOT
Trade between the US and China
In the 2023/24 MY, soybean exports from the US to China fell to a 4-year low, and sales for the 2024/25 season also remain low and inferior to last year's and average annual figures.
Only 46% of U.S. exports in 2024/25 went to China, the lowest level in 18 years, excluding the trade war. U.S. farmers should be concerned about China's reduced dependence on U.S. soybeans, one of the main commodities the U.S. exports to China.
In addition, Brazil, the world's largest soybean exporter, has enough reserves to meet China's needs. The soybean crop, which the country will start harvesting in January, will be a record, 10% higher than last year.
Cumulative soybean export sales from the US to China
Low wheat stocks and weak prices
In mid-2025, wheat stocks for use among major exporting countries will reach a 17-year low, but wheat futures in Chicago were at a 6-year low on those dates.
The long-term low forecast of stocks at major exporters has been repeated for several years, but world wheat needs, despite the reduction in supplies, are being met to a sufficient extent. This is also facilitated by the increase in exports from the Russian Federation, which significantly lowers prices. However, the condition of winter crops in the Russian Federation is quite poor, which may significantly affect the wheat market in the spring.
Wheat stocks for use by major exporters
Recall that Karen Brown is a Reuters analyst, and all of the above is her personal opinion.
