Brazil Soybean Crop Forecast Raised Again, But Prices Remain Steady on U.S. Refinery Buildup

Strong soybean planting rates and good rainfall in Brazil continue to improve crop prospects, but soybean quotes remain consistently low.

According to AgRural data, 91% of the planned area was sown with soybeans in Brazil on November 28, compared to 85% last year.

The Celeres agency increased the soybean production forecast in Brazil in 2024/25 by 1 million tons to 170.8 million tons, and the export forecast to 107 million tons. At the same time, the Agroconsult agency increased the estimate of the sown area by 1.5% (compared to last year) to 47.5 million hectares, the harvest forecast by 11% to 172.6 million tons, and exports by 5.3% to 103, 4 million tons

In Argentina, 44.4% of the planned 18.6 million hectares have been planted to soybeans, and 98% of crops are in good moisture and good condition thanks to recent rains, according to BAGE Grain Exchange.

January soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange traded at $362/t this week (-1.2% for the month) supported by active exports and increased US soybean processing.

In October, U.S. soybean processing rose 15.7% from September to a record 5.87 million tons, while traders estimated it at 5.7 million tons. Soybean oil stocks decreased by 1.1% to 674,000 tons during the month.

The export of soybeans from the USA for November 22-28 increased in comparison with the previous week by 78% to 2.088 million tons, of which 952 thousand tons were purchased by China and 548.5 thousand tons by Italy. In total, 21.793 million tons of soybeans have been exported since the beginning of the season, which is 16.2% higher than last year's rate.

Export sales of soybean oil from the US since this period have increased to 124.8 thousand tons, which was the largest weekly export since March 2019 and the sixth largest in the history of US MSG data since 1990.