Drought lowers wheat and barley harvest forecasts in Turkey

Due to a dry autumn and winter, as well as an expected dry spring, Turkey is forecast to see a decline in wheat and barley harvests in the 2025/26 MY. Wheat production is expected to be 18.5 million tonnes (versus 19 million tonnes last year) and the area is expected to be 7.35 million hectares. The decline is due to a drop in yields due to a lack of rainfall in key regions.

 

Wheat consumption will remain stable at 19.4 million tonnes, as demand for food wheat (90% of total consumption) will remain unchanged. Despite changing eating habits and stabilizing population growth, Turkey remains one of the largest bread consumers in the world.

 

Wheat imports will increase to 8 million tons (+4 million tons), mainly from Russia, given the continued high processing rates at over 550 mills and 25 pasta factories.

 

Barley plantings will decrease by 7% to 3.5 million hectares, and production by 11% to 6.25 million tonnes. The reason is that farmers have chosen more profitable crops such as wheat, rapeseed and sunflower. Consumption will remain stable at 7.4 million tonnes.

 

In contrast, corn production will increase by 12% to 7.9 million tons due to the expansion of areas to 610 thousand hectares and high prices ($270/ton in March). Corn is grown mostly in irrigated fields.

 

Corn consumption is expected to increase to 9.8 million tons due to increased demand from the feed industry. Turkey, one of the leaders in chicken production, plans to expand the industry by 8% in 2025. In 2024, compound feed production increased by 5% to 29.3 million tons.