Increased soybean harvest forecast in Argentina and active planting in the US put pressure on soybean quotes, but prices in Ukraine remain high

Analysts at the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, due to better-than-expected yields, have raised their forecast for soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/26 MY from 48.6 to 50.1 million tons, while the USDA estimates it at 48 million tons.

As of May 21, 2026, soybeans in Argentina were harvested on 74.7% of the planned area, and the average yield was 3.28 t/ha, which was the highest in the last six seasons.

According to the NASS report, as of May 24, soybeans were planted at 79% of the planned area in the United States (compared to 68% on average for the past 5 years), and seedlings were obtained at 49% (40% on average). Favorable weather for sowing and crop development could lead to an increase in soybean planting areas in the United States.

Brazilian agency ANEC predicts that Brazil will export 15.9 million tons of soybeans in May, slightly below April's record of 16.75 million tons, and 2 million tons above May last year.

Under pressure from increased supply, July soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell by 3.8% in two weeks to $435.5/t (+0.4% per month), and November futures fell to $434/t (+1.3% per month).

In Ukraine, soybean prices remain high due to high demand from processors. Over the past week, purchase prices for GMO soybeans remained at 21,700–22,000 UAH/t ($430–440/t excluding VAT) delivered to the plant, while prices for non-GMO soybeans increased by 200–300 UAH/t to 22,500–22,700 UAH/t delivered to the plant.

Export demand for GMO soybeans at ports is almost non-existent, while export demand for non-GMO soybeans from the EU has increased, causing demand prices for non-GMO soybeans to increase by another $5/t to $480/t for deliveries to the western border in a week.

Soybean exports from Ukraine for the 21st of May amounted to 172.9 thousand tons (compared to 158.5 thousand tons in April), and in total for the season reached 1.82 million tons. The main buyers of soybeans in May were Turkey (58.4 thousand tons), France (33 thousand tons), the Netherlands (28.4 thousand tons), Germany (12.5 thousand tons), Poland (6.6 thousand tons), Greece (6.3 thousand tons) and Hungary (5.4 thousand tons). Also in May, Ukraine exported 31.1 thousand tons of soybean oil and 93.1 thousand tons of soybean meal.

Increased supplies of soybeans and its processed products from Argentina to the EU will increase competition for Ukrainian exporters.

According to the European Commission, as of May 17, EU countries reduced soybean imports compared to the same period last year by 8% to 11.61 million tons, with the shares of supplies from Brazil and Ukraine increasing, while the share of Argentina decreased.

Imports of soybean meal into the EU decreased by 7% compared to the previous season due to subdued demand for it in the EU, due to a high harvest and increased supplies, which increases pressure on spot prices.