Overview of the Ukrainian grain market from SPIKE BROKERS

In the 2026/27 MY, Ukraine exported 3.55 million tons of agricultural products, including corn — 1.24 million tons, wheat — 1.06 million tons, barley — 294 thousand tons, sunflower oil — 250 thousand tons, soybeans — 63 thousand tons, sunflower meal — 73.5 thousand tons, and soybean meal — 112.8 thousand tons.

 

The potential for land exports is limited by the capacity of the transport infrastructure. In July, cereals, vegetable oils and meal accounted for only 12% of the total wagon arrivals at western border crossings, while the main cargo flow consisted of ore, metal structures, cement, containers and critical import cargoes.

 

During July, 279.2 thousand tons of agricultural products were exported through road checkpoints, mainly goods with high added value, in particular poultry meat - 25.8 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 24.3 thousand tons, ethyl alcohol - 21.5 thousand tons, sugar - 18.1 thousand tons, soybean meal - 16.8 thousand tons, and soybean oil - 15.3 thousand tons. However, market participants do not yet consider road transportation as a means of mass grain export.

 

Over the 28 days of July, 1.89 million tons of grain cargo were transported by rail, which is 30.2% lower than the June figure, but 82.3% higher than the July 2025 figure. The average daily load was 51.5 thousand tons, which is 40% lower than the June level and 36% higher than in July 2025. In particular, 1.564 million tons of grain and its processing products were exported, 90.5 thousand tons of vegetable oil, and 165.4 thousand tons of cake and meal.

 

In July, 88% of grain cargo was exported through seaports and only 12% through land border crossings, but the western border remains the main export route for vegetable oils and meals.

 

The average daily transfer of grain and meal through border crossings in July decreased by 20% compared to June to 135 wagons/day, with the largest volumes of grain transport being provided by Hungary - 37.6 wagons/day, Slovakia - 17.3 wagons/day, Poland - 14.9 wagons/day, while only 1.1 wagons/day were transferred through Romania.

 

Despite the reduction in overall railcar traffic, the accumulation of grain trucks at border crossings increased from 58 to 201 cars, while the number of grain trucks heading to the ports of Greater Odessa decreased by 3,169 cars per week to a record low of 1,356 cars, the average daily unloading decreased by 160 cars to 690 cars, and the average daily loading in this direction decreased by 203 cars to 580 cars.

 

At the same time, in the direction of the Danube ports, the number of grain trucks in motion increased by 974 wagons to 1,141 wagons, and the average daily unloading increased by 17 wagons to 51 wagons.

 

Overall, in July, grain shipments to seaports decreased by 37% compared to June to 1.38 million tons due to overcrowding of port terminals due to the suspension of exports.

 

Against the backdrop of a significant decline in world futures on the physical market of Ukraine, food wheat fell by 11.5% during the week by $3/t to $195/t, feed wheat by $3/t to $185/t, while the SPIKE CPT Odesa corn index remained nominally at $200/t. At the same time, on a land basis, the SPIKE FCA Chop corn index grew by $3/t to $223/t.