Ukrainian market overview from Spike Brokers analysts as of November 27, 2025

As of November 27, 2025, Ukraine harvested 52.5 million tons of grain and leguminous crops (53.4 million tons last year) and 17 (19.7) million tons of oilseeds (including soybeans).

 

Late crops harvested: corn – 22.5 million tons (24.2 million tons last year), sunflower – 9 (10.2) million tons, soybeans – 4.7 (6) million tons.

 

From November 1 to 27, 4.7 million tons of agricultural products were exported (5.4 million tons last year), including: wheat - 1 (1) million tons, rapeseed - 157 (315) thousand tons, corn - 1.6 (2.2) million tons, barley - 74 (149) thousand tons, soybeans - 330 (429) thousand tons, sunflower oil - 396 (400) thousand tons, rapeseed oil - 60 (9) thousand tons, soybean oil - 36 (36) thousand tons, sunflower meal - 405 (264) thousand tons.

 

Thanks to the increase in the supply of wagons from Ukrzaliznytsia, wagon rental rates fell from a record 7,700 UAH/day to 3,500 UAH/day.

 

As of November 26, 10,083 wagons/day (+737) or 700 thousand tons of cargo (+100 thousand tons) are moving towards the ports of Greater Odessa. The average loading rate is 1,362 wagons/day (-37), unloading is 1,296 wagons/day (-15). With such dynamics, by December 31, 46 thousand wagons or 3.3 million tons of cargo will be unloaded in the ports, and the number of wagons on the road will be 12,300, which will complicate the movement of wagons towards the ports, so for their unloading it is necessary to actively use the western borders, where 164 wagons/day are currently being transferred (+29; +21% to 10/30/25). Shipments towards the western borders are growing, especially to the EU through Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.

 

In Ukraine, 22.5 million tons of corn were harvested from 75% of the area, so the total harvest could reach 30.5 million tons (25.5 million tons last year). In November, 1.6 million tons of corn were exported (2.2 million tons last year), including 369.9 thousand tons to Turkey, 364.5 thousand tons to Italy, 118.8 thousand tons to Tunisia, 111.2 thousand tons to the Netherlands, and 109.3 thousand tons to Israel. Europe's share in total exports was 38%, and the largest buyers were Italy and the Netherlands.

 

At the end of the week, prices towards ports stabilized, and the spot price index for corn with delivery within 30 days remained unchanged at $210/t all week.

 

Corn supplies to Europe via the western border are increasing. The main buyer remains Italy, where 80,000 tons of corn will be delivered by rail in November.

 

For corn delivered in January-March at FCA Chop in Eurocars, they offered €187-188/t. Prices for the 2026 harvest in the direction of Italy fell by €5/t to €180-182/t (November-December 2026) in a week. Italy has already purchased about 100 thousand tons of corn of the 2026 harvest delivered by railcars.

 

Export demand for wheat remains under pressure from supply from the Russian Federation. In November, Ukraine exported 1.07 million tons of wheat, of which 258.7 thousand tons were to Indonesia, 186.2 thousand tons were to Algeria, 164.4 thousand tons were to Egypt, 113.9 thousand tons were to Yemen, and 56.7 thousand tons were to Lebanon.

 

Prices for feed and food wheat at ports have decreased. The spot price index for food wheat 11.5% with delivery to the port within 30 days fell by $1/t to $220/t, for feed wheat – by $1/t to $210/t.

 

In Ukraine, 150,000 hectares of sunflower remain unthreshed, the quality of which will be low and the acidity high, so the oil obtained will be mainly technical.

 

In November, sunflower oil exports remained unchanged compared to November 2024, while meal exports doubled.

 

During the week, oil prices in the ports of Northern Europe remained at the level of $1,330/t. In the ports of Ukraine, sunflower oil was traded at $1,230-1,240/t CPT, and meal was traded at $225/230/t (bulk/pellet).

 

The spot price index for sunflower for processing with delivery within 30 days increased by $5/t to $690/t (including VAT).

 

Rapeseed prices are gradually increasing, so February futures on MATIF may soon reach €490-495/t. In Germany, the premium over February futures is up to €5/t with delivery to the factory.

 

In the 2025/26 MY, Europe reduced rapeseed imports by 40% compared to the previous season to 1.5 million tons, but increased imports of rapeseed oil by 67% to 182 thousand tons and meal by 85% to 366 thousand tons.

 

The spot price index for rapeseed for processing with delivery within 30 days remained at $593/t including VAT during the week. Towards the western border, prices are €450/t DAP for basic quality loaded into wagons.

 

This week, prices for GMO soybeans at ports were $425/t, and for non-GMO soybeans were $455/t. Europe's postponement of the date of introduction of EUDR compliance has changed the market situation, as accumulated stocks of soybeans and meal will force importers to reduce purchases, which will increase pressure on prices.

 

Demand in the direction of Italy is closed until February, and prices for deliveries in February are $450/t CRT-Chop with delivery by car or wagon.

 

The spot price index for GMO soybeans for export with delivery within 30 days increased by $4/t to $422/t (excluding VAT), for processing – by $2/t to $456/t (including VAT). The premium for non-GMO soybeans decreased to $30-35/t.