Ukrainian market overview as of January 25, 2026

Oilseed supplies from Ukraine to the EU decreased by 24%, in particular rapeseed - by 41% and sunflower - by 23%, and oilseed meals - by 11%, in particular sunflower - by 41%. Ukraine's share among oilseed meal suppliers to the EU is 55.3% or 1.15 million tons, oilseed meals - 22.6% or 174.4 thousand tons (while Argentina's 64.4%), in particular sunflower meal - 13% (Canada's 77.3%).

 

Supplies of vegetable oils decreased by 5%, but it was Ukraine that provided 92.3% of imports of sunflower oil (870 thousand tons), 68.6% of rapeseed oil (191 thousand tons) and 48.1% of soybean oil (151 thousand tons) to the EU.

 

Despite the decline in the grain segment, Ukraine remains an active supplier of processed products due to stable supplies and competitive logistics.

 

The ports of the Odessa region remain leaders in ensuring agricultural exports. The average daily unloading of wagons for the week decreased by 33 wagons to 1,175 wagons/day, and loading increased by 31 wagons to 1,109 wagons/day. The number of wagons on the track decreased by 47 to 8,337 wagons, which indicates an improvement in the synchronization of wagon supply and port unloading. Only 55 wagons are heading to the Danube ports, and unloading is 9 wagons/day. The ports remain critically important for the transshipment of corn, wheat, rapeseed and meal, and continue to operate without significant disruptions and queues.

 

Corn prices rose from $206 to $208/t CPT-port amid reduced supply. The average price index for corn delivered to port rose by $2/t to $208/t in the week.

 

As of January 24, Ukraine exported 2.04 million tons of corn, of which 498 thousand tons were exported to Italy, 414 thousand tons to Turkey, 215 thousand tons to Spain, 145 thousand tons to Egypt, 176 thousand tons to Tunisia, and 89 thousand tons to Algeria, which indicates the high competitiveness of Ukrainian corn in the MENA and EU markets.

 

Demand for February is partially closed, which, against the background of slow exports, may increase stocks in the second half of the season. On the western border, prices remain at 176 €/t FCA Chop. Italy continues to buy Ukrainian corn, and by the end of January exports in this direction will reach 1.8 million tons, with the country's annual need of 4 million tons.

 

Prices for food wheat remain at $210/t, for feed wheat at $205/t at the CPT port under pressure from low demand from MENA and significantly lower prices for Russian wheat.

 

In January, Ukraine exported 420.8 thousand tons of wheat, of which 174 thousand tons went to Algeria, 141 thousand tons to Egypt, 44 thousand tons to Yemen, and 29 thousand tons to Spain.

 

The situation on the domestic market is stable - processors are provided with raw materials, logistics to ports are working, demand for feed wheat is moderate, and slightly higher - for quality grain.

 

Sunflower prices have increased slightly. The spot index CPT-processing has increased by $13/tonne in a week to $678/tonne including VAT. However, the cost of processing is twice as high as last year. Processors are making cautious purchases, taking into account logistics and marketing costs.

 

Soybean oil FOB - northern EU ports fell by $30/t to $1,490/t, while soybean meal is trading at $215-225/t depending on the direction.

 

The pressure on prices of processed products is increasing. On the western border, the demand prices for meal are $238-245/t, but the market expects either an improvement in the logistical situation or additional demand stimuli.

 

Rapeseed prices at MATIF increased by €10/t to €481/t during the week and the potential target is €507/t. The increase is due to the reduction in supplies of Canadian rapeseed meal to the EU (now 77% of imports) against the background of a new agreement between Canada and the PRC. European processors have increased their purchases of rapeseed in anticipation of increased processing volumes, which improves the prospects for Ukrainian rapeseed.

 

At the same time, rapeseed oil prices on FOB - Netherlands fell by €6/t to €1,044/t, although demand on the physical market increased, especially on DAP - Germany to €495-515/t depending on the oil content.

 

Prices are also supported by the European Commission's initiative to stimulate biofuel production from 2027, which will increase demand for raw materials in the medium term.

 

Indicative soybean prices also increased: CPT - processing by $3/t to $457/t with VAT, CPT-port for export - up to $426/t without VAT. Demand for soybeans remains high, and from January 1 to 24, Ukraine exported 168 thousand tons of soybeans, of which more than 85 thousand tons to Turkey, 27 thousand tons to the Netherlands, and 17 thousand tons to Germany.

 

EU soybean oil prices remain stable ($1,130/t FCA Hamburg), but the market expects them to decline under pressure from a record harvest in Brazil (178 million tons) and significant ending stocks (124.41 million tons).