Low soybean yields in Argentina and Brazil will lead to higher prices for soybean and sunflower oil
South America is finalizing the soybean harvest, and analysts are updating their estimates ahead of the USDA report. Thus, they expect that in the May balance USDA exports will reduce the forecast for soybean production in Argentina by 1 million tons to 42.5 million tons and Brazil by 700 thousand tons to 124.3 million tons, although the local agency Safras and Mercado lowered their harvest estimates for Brazil by 2.8 million tons to 122.3 million tons.
May soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade for the week fell 1.4% to $ 601.5 / t, and November - by 1.5% to $ 537.6 / t, but according to the report, price growth may resume , especially given the low sowing rates in the United States.
Due to rain and cold weather, as of May 8, only 12% of the planned area in the United States was sown, compared to 39% last year and 24% on average over 5 years on the same date.
Despite a slight decline in soybean prices, May soybean oil futures in Chicago rose 4.8% in the week to $ 1938 / t, while December remained at $ 1612 / t.
Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports significantly supports soybean oil prices, which in turn contributes to higher sunflower oil prices.
Against the background of the blockade of Ukrainian ports, prices for Russian sunflower oil remain at a high level of 1850-2000 $ / t FOB, but demand for it is insignificant, as major importers refuse to buy Russian products due to sanctions and problems with foreign exchange settlements.
Ukrainian sunflower oil with delivery to Romania, Poland and Germany is offered for 1600-1800 $ / t, but the difficulties with shipment by rail due to long queues of cars at crossing stations and the lack of the required number of vehicles will not increase supplies to the EU in the near future. on oil at a high level.