Low rates of canola exports from Canada will put pressure on quotes in the coming months

Since the beginning of the 2025/26 MY (August 1 - November 9), the total volume of canola exports from Canada amounted to only 1.544 million tons, which is 54.1% lower than the corresponding figure last year, Sun Sirs reports.

The significant reduction in exports is primarily due to the suspension of Canadian canola supplies to China, as well as the lack of active supplies to the EU, which indicates a decrease in global demand and the formation of excess supply on the Canadian market. The current situation is putting strong pressure on spot prices, and a further slowdown in exports creates the prerequisites for increasing inventories and strengthening downward price dynamics.

January Canadian canola futures rose 1.5% to CAD 656/t or $468/t (+4.1% month-on-month), supported by a speculative 10% month-on-month increase in Chicago soybean quotes in anticipation of sales to China. But Chinese buyers are still actively buying Brazilian soybeans, which are $20-30/t cheaper than American ones, and are also forced to make “political purchases” of expensive American soybeans, which leads to the creation of additional soybean and soybean meal stocks in China and lower prices.

Falling soybean meal prices are weighing on the rapeseed meal market in China, with the January futures contract on the Zhengzhou Exchange falling to 2,449 yuan/t or $345/t. In the Chinese rapeseed oil market, the March contract fell to 9,635 yuan/t or $1,355/t, adding to bearish sentiment amid a growing supply-demand imbalance.

Agriculture Canada forecasts that total domestic canola processing in the 2025/26 MY will increase by 3% compared to last season to 11.8 million tonnes (with a harvest forecast of 20 million tonnes), which will partially compensate for the loss of the Chinese export market. In August, 868 thousand tonnes of canola were processed, and in September processing increased to 1 million tonnes, which is 8% higher than in September 2024.

At the end of November, Statistics Canada will update its canola harvest forecast, which could exceed 20 million tonnes, which will increase pressure on domestic prices.

In Ukraine, export demand for rapeseed remains at $545–550/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, but stable rapeseed prices in Europe and increased harvest forecasts in the EU and Australia will keep prices from rising further.