Soybean prices strengthen on US-China trade signals, but improving US weather holds back new crop price gains

2025-06-10 11:11:17
Soybean prices strengthen on US-China trade signals, but improving US weather holds back new crop price gains

Global soybean prices are showing signs of strengthening, partly due to political developments — trade talks between the US and China — and expectations of increased demand for biofuels in the US . At the same time, favorable weather in the US is putting pressure on new crop soybean prices.

 

US–China trade talks

Negotiations were held in London involving US Treasury Secretary Bessant, Commerce Secretary Greer, and Economic Affairs Minister Lonick with their Chinese counterparts. The issues of rare earth element exports and access to American technology were discussed.
Due to trade tensions, China reduced its purchases of American soybeans in the second half of the season, which is putting pressure on new crop soybean prices.

 

The US EPA plans to set a biodiesel blending quota in 2026 at 4.65 billion gallons, which:

  • below biofuel industry expectations (5.25 billion),
  • but significantly higher than the quota for 2025 (3.35 billion).
    This signal had a positive impact on soybean market sentiment.

 

Stock quotes (Chicago)

  • July futures : +2.1% for the week — up to $388/t (+1.5% for the month)
  • November futures (new crop): $10/t lower , indicating expectations of high supply due to good weather

 

Weather conditions in the USA

As of June 8:

  • 90% of planned areas are sown with soybeans (88% - average for 5 years)
  • 68% of crops in good or excellent condition , compared to 72% last year
    Weather conditions remain favorable for crop development.

 

Exports to the USA

According to the USDA report:

  • For the week ending June 5, US soybean exports increased by 81.5% to 547,000 tons
  • total exports in the 2024/25 season already amount to 45.19 million tons , which is 11.5% more than last year
  • USDA forecast for the end of the season: 50.3 million tons

 

China: record imports

According to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China:

  • In May, soybean imports to China reached a record 13.92 million tons (+128.9% compared to April)
  • this significantly exceeded expectations (12–12.5 million tons)

Reasons for growth:

  • normalization of customs clearance (up to 2 weeks)
  • active recycling : Chinese enterprises' utilization exceeds 50%
  • stable supplies of soybean meal to the domestic market

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