Soybean and canola prices hit 3-year highs amid rising oil prices and easing uncertainty in the US biofuel market

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decision to grant 29 small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 1.76 billion RINs, with a simultaneous 100% reallocation of this difference from the 2025 obligation to 2026–2027, removes uncertainty with biofuel demand and ensures that physical demand for renewable fuels will not be lost, but only shifted to subsequent periods.

The market responded with an immediate increase in the value of RIN credits, making biofuel production and blending more economically attractive and leading to higher prices for soybeans, soybean oil, and canola.

December soybean oil futures on SWOT rose 2.3% yesterday to $1,600/t (+7% for the week, +6.7% for the month), returning to the maximum levels reached in June - July.

The quote was also supported by data that soybean processing in the US in July increased by 1.9% compared to June to 6.04 million tons, which was 8.2% higher than the July 2025 figure. At the same time, soybean oil stocks decreased by 6.4% compared to June to 891 thousand tons, which was 4.7% higher than last year.

November soybean futures on SWOT yesterday rose by 2.2% to $484.3/t (+6.5% for the week, +10.8% for the month) and reached the highest level since the end of 2023. The quote supports the deterioration of the US crop situation and the decline in harvest forecasts.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange rose 3.2% to CAD 841/t or $587/t yesterday (+6.5% for the week, +10.7% for the month) and reached a 3-year high. They are supported by rainy weather in the Canadian prairies, which is delaying the canola harvest and could lead to crop losses.

Agriculture and Food Canada in August raised its estimate for canola production by 600,000 tonnes to 21.6 million tonnes, almost reaching a record 21.809 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season.

A strong factor supporting quotes was the rise in oil prices. November Brent crude futures rose 7.8% to a 1.5-month high of $94.8/barrel since Monday amid renewed military strikes between the US and Iran and a possible new blockade of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

November rapeseed futures on the Matif exchange in Paris rose 2.3% yesterday to €556.75/t or $645.3/t (+4.5 for the week, +8.5% for the month) following the rise in oil and canola prices, but did not reach the maximum level of €557.25/t recorded on July 20.

We expect the markets to be in turmoil for about two more weeks, followed by USDA data on the US soybean crop, Canadian canola harvest results and revised crop forecasts. In addition, the forecasted rains in Brazil in September will also improve the crop outlook, which will increase the pressure on prices. Therefore, it is worth “selling on rumors” now, as after receiving fundamental factors (about record soybean and rapeseed harvest volumes this season), prices may decrease, especially under the pressure of seasonally increased supply of soybeans, sunflowers and rapeseed.