Soybean prices hit 2.5-year high, but prices continue to fall in Ukraine

Soybean quotes in Chicago remain at their highest level since late 2023, thanks to increased purchases from China and rising soybean oil prices following oil prices, as well as prolonged rainfall that is delaying the harvest.

 

November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade over the past 7 days have decreased by 0.8% to $485/t (+8.2% per month) amid an unexpected increase by USDA experts in the forecast for the US soybean harvest by 0.4 million tons to 123.4 (116) million tons due to an increase in the estimate of the sown area and yield, although analysts expected a decrease in these indicators.

 

According to traders, Chinese importers have already purchased about 12-13 million tons of new crop soybeans from the United States, which is almost half of Trump's promised annual mandatory purchase volume of 25 million tons. Purchases are accelerating ahead of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's visit to the United States, which is scheduled to take place in late September.

 

According to USDA, soybean export sales for the week of September 4-10 increased to 1.7 million tons (which is almost double the volume of the same week last year), of which 875.3 thousand tons were purchased by China.

 

In Ukraine, as of September 15, 325.78 thousand tons of soybeans were harvested from 167.51 thousand hectares or 11% of the area, with a yield of 1.94 tons/hectare. Compared to the previous season, soybean production will decrease, but the lack of sea exports continues to collapse domestic demand and prices.

 

Processors continue to reduce prices for GMO soybeans, and in a week they lowered them by another 500-1000 UAH/t to 16,000-16,500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, amid increasing logistics costs for the export of meal.

 

Demand for Ukrainian soybeans from the EU remains stable against the background of rising world prices, and export prices for soybeans with GMOs and 33% protein (on a raw basis) are $400-420/t delivered to the border and $430-440/t loaded into a Eurocar. It should be noted that the premium for non-GMO soybeans has decreased to $10-20/t, and the demand for such soybeans is decreasing.

 

The market expects the US soybean harvest to accelerate after prolonged rainfall and weather data in Brazil ahead of the new soybean planting season, as if weather conditions improve, soybean prices will lose speculative support and begin to adjust in line with forecasts of a record soybean and other oilseed harvest this season.