Vegetable oil prices fell sharply this week under pressure from falling oil prices and increased supply

The resumption of negotiations with Iran led to a decline in oil prices (insert link to oil news), and consequently, in palm and soybean oil prices, which increased pressure on sunflower oil prices.

June Brent crude futures fell 15% to $95/barrel in a week (-1% in a month, +35% since the start of the war) and accelerated their decline yesterday on news of the passage of about 20 ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

May futures on the Bursa Malaysia exchange fell 6.7% in a week to the lowest level since March 10 at 4,466 ringgit/t or $1,130/t (+6.7% in two weeks). The rise in prices has sharply reduced demand for palm oil. According to surveyors, palm oil exports from Malaysia fell by 32-38.9% in 10 days of April, which increases pressure on prices.

May soybean oil futures on the Chicago SWOT fell 4.5% to $1,464/t in a week (+3.9% in a month, +7.3% since the start of the war) amid falling oil prices and increased supply of cheap soybean oil from South America.

During the week, the price of soybean oil from Brazil for delivery in April-May decreased by $35-40/t to $1,180-1,190/t FOB, and for soybean oil in China - by $5-10/t to $1,240/t.

Prices for sunflower oil delivered to India remained at $1,430-1,435/t CIF Mumbai during the week, but there is already an increase in offers from Argentina, where prices have decreased by $10-20/t to $1,280-1,290/t FOB.

Demand prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil remained at $1,300-1,310/t for delivery to Black Sea ports during the week, while supply prices for Russian sunflower oil fell by $5-10/t to $1,325-1,330/t FOB.

World prices for sunflower oil have risen, but Russian companies cannot take advantage of the situation and make money by increasing shipments. Despite a significant harvest and increased production of oil, including sunflower, exports are declining, and in the first six months of the 2025/2026 season, sunflower oil exports from the Russian Federation decreased by 14%. Significant stocks of sunflower oil in the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, against the background of a record sunflower harvest in Argentina, may increase competition in the market, especially in the event of a drop in demand in the coming months, during a period of seasonal increase in the supply of cheap palm and soybean oil.

Sunflower stocks in Kazakhstan as of April 1 amounted to about 1.47 million tons, which is more than 2 times higher than the corresponding figure last year (0.7 million tons), so it is becoming a powerful player in the sunflower oil market and continues its expansion in the Chinese market.