Rapeseed prices in Paris hit 2-year high amid rising oil prices and restrictions on exports from Ukraine

Rapeseed oil prices on the Paris stock exchange continue to rise amid a sharp rise in oil prices due to the resumption of the war between the United States and Iran and the intensification of the war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation in the Black Sea.

September Brent crude futures rose 15.8% last week to $88/barrel (+22% in two weeks), and on Monday morning at the start of trading in Asia they had already crossed the psychological level of $90/barrel.

August rapeseed futures on the Euronext Paris exchange rose by 5.3% to €544/t or $622/t (+7.9% in two weeks), and November futures rose by 4.2% to the highest level since July 25, 2024, at €550/t.

If earlier the quotes were increasing due to hot weather in France, now the main driver has become the increase in oil prices and the possible suspension of sea exports of rapeseed from Ukraine due to attacks by the Russian Federation on civilian ships entering Ukrainian ports. Last week, about ten ships were damaged by Russian UAV strikes near Ukrainian ports, and over the weekend a Turkish ship was hit by a missile strike, killing 6 crew members. Such strikes have practically stopped ships from approaching ports for loading, which blocks the acceptance of grain by terminals.

The French rapeseed harvest forecast remains at last year's level , despite hot conditions in June, but the question of rapeseed import volumes into the EU currently remains open due to supply restrictions from Ukraine and rising canola prices in Canada.

On the ICE exchange in Winnipeg, November canola futures rose 2.2% to CAD 795/t or $567/t (+7.4% in two weeks) following oil prices.

Weather conditions for canola crops in Canada remain favorable, although precipitation is uneven across regions.

In Ukraine, export demand prices for rapeseed have decreased again by $15-20/t over the past 7 days to $550-565/t (oil content 42%) or UAH 26,000-26,500/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, as traders are reducing purchases due to heavy shelling of ports and vessels.

Processors also reduced purchase prices by UAH 1,000/t to UAH 24,500–25,000/t ($480–490/t excluding VAT) with delivery to the plant due to limited export opportunities for oil and meal.

Demand prices for rapeseed delivered to the western border of Ukraine also decreased by €10/t to €480/t or $550-570/t loaded on a Eurotrain, as supply increased and acceptance opportunities in August are limited. At the same time, prices for deliveries to factories in the Czech Republic or Poland increased by €10/t to €535-545/t, but with delivery no earlier than September.

Rainfall forecast for Ukraine this week will slow down the rapeseed harvest, which will reduce supply and pressure prices.