Oil prices rise 5% amid renewed US-Iran tensions

November Brent crude futures rose 4.8% yesterday to a 1.5-month high of $94.8/barrel (+7.8% since Monday, +17% for the month) after US strikes on military facilities in Iran and Iranian attacks on US military bases in Jordan and the UAE.

 

The US launched a new wave of strikes on Iran in response to its attempts to plant mines in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on American bases, and Iran, in turn, attacked two oil supertankers while trying to exit the Strait of Hormuz, which again virtually stopped the movement of ships through the strait.

 

The strikes have raised the possibility that the conflict could once again shift from economic pressure to prolonged fighting. Tehran and Washington have said they do not want a return to full-scale war, but each has threatened retaliation if there is another attack, Reuters reported.

 

Yesterday, the Iranian president called on the US to return to the June interim agreement, despite Trump's threats to destroy Iran with new strikes.

 

The economic situation in Iran continues to deteriorate due to the US naval blockade of all exports and imports from Iranian ports, so the official Iranian authorities are trying to stop the war, but the IRGC continues to launch missiles and is trying to regain leverage over the US by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the US army has already practically organized the export of oil by small tankers, which are then reloaded onto large tankers in the open sea, so now only the export of liquefied gas remains blocked, since large gas carriers do not risk entering the Persian Gulf, which is why the Qatari economy is suffering.

 

We expect the parties to sit down at the negotiating table again, and oil prices will roll back to $85-90/barrel, but now we need to take advantage of the increase in oilseed quotations and sell while prices are at maximum levels.