Oil prices fell 3.7% last week, but have already started to recover as OPEC+ increased production less than expected

On Friday, prices for WTI crude oil (CLV25) decreased by 1.61 (-2.54%), and for October gasoline RBOB (RBV25) - by 0.0453 (-2.25%).

Crude oil prices fell last week on expectations that OPEC+ would accelerate production increases, as well as concerns about a slowdown in the US economy after a weak jobs report.

According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia will insist at the meeting on September 7 that OPEC+ accelerate the increase in production, although markets had hoped that the alliance would stop the increase in production due to the surplus situation on the global market, so November Brent oil quotes fell by 2.4% to $65.5/barrel.

For Saudi Arabia, OPEC+ on Sunday increased production by 137,000 barrels per day since October, well below the August increase of 547,000 barrels per day, sending Brent crude up 1.2% to $66.3 a barrel for the week. But overall, the alliance plans to increase production by 1.65 million barrels per day by the end of 2025, which will keep oil prices under control.

Friday's report showed that the US unemployment rate rose to a 3.75-year high of 4.3% and exceeded the jobless rate, indicating expectations of a recession in the US economy and also putting pressure on oil prices.

Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries over 27 days in August reduced Russian crude oil processing to 5.09 million barrels per day, the lowest monthly average in more than 3.25 years. This is exacerbating Russia's fuel shortage, although it is also helping to boost crude oil exports.

Due to the loss of 17% of refining capacity over the past 4-5 weeks, the Russian Federation has increased its seaborne oil exports to a record high. In the last week of August, seaborne crude oil shipments from the Russian Federation increased by 21% to 455,000 tons per day, the highest this summer.

Shipments from the port of Primorsk increased by 72% to 180 thousand tons per day, from the Azov-Black Sea ports (Novorossiysk) by 42%. At the same time, exports from Kozmino (D. Vostok) fell by 11.6% to 114 thousand tons per day. According to the latest data, 28% of oil exports will be delivered to China, 14% to Turkey. The rest (52%) are tankers with unknown destinations, but analysts suggest that 80% of them will ultimately be purchased by India.

Crude oil prices will remain stable, so they will not significantly affect the vegetable oil and corn markets in the near future.