Canola and rapeseed prices rise due to delayed planting in Canada

High soybean oil prices in the US and delayed canola planting in Canada are supporting canola quotes in Winnipeg and rapeseed in Paris, while forecasts that oil prices will remain at $100/barrel are boosting demand for biofuels and new crop rapeseed.

 

The late spring has significantly delayed canola planting in Canada, so as of May 25, only 38% of the planned area had been sown with oilseeds in the country (83% in 2025 and 71% in 2024), in particular in the province of Saskatchewan - 38% of the area, in Alberta - 60.9% of the area. At the same time, in Manitoba, the number of canola-sown areas increased by 16% to 60% in a week.

 

After a period of unusually low temperatures that significantly delayed spring sowing, favorable weather has set in in the country with periodic precipitation, which will replenish moisture reserves and create the prerequisites for stable crop development in the coming weeks.

 

July canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange have risen 5.7% over the past 7 days to their highest level since September 2023 of 798 CAD/t or $574/t (+5% month-on-month, +14% year-on-year), and in November new crop canola futures reached a psychologically high level of 800 CAD/t.

 

A sharp increase in Chicago soybean oil quotes of 5.5% in the week to $1,730/t (+64% in the year) has significantly supported Canadian canola oil prices, although subsidies for biofuels produced from it in the US are only 50% compared to the use of domestic soybean oil. The margin for canola processing in Canada reaches 400 CAD/t, which keeps demand for old crop canola at a high level, but the increase in canola prices reduces export opportunities relative to canola prices.

 

August rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange rose to their highest level since May 2024 at €533.75/t or $625/t (+2.5% month-on-month, +16% year-on-year) in the last 7 days, supported by rising canola prices as vegetable oil prices remain broadly stable .

 

In Ukraine, prices for new crop rapeseed are rising following quotes in Paris, and in a week they increased by another $10-15/t to $610-615/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, although a year ago, forward prices for 2025 rapeseed did not exceed $500-510/t.

 

Ukraine and the EU have had good rainfall in recent weeks, and temperatures have remained at 18-25 ^° C, which has contributed to the development of rapeseed crops, so harvest forecasts are in line with last year's level or even exceed them.

 

We believe that prices for new crop rapeseed may gradually decrease as the harvest is harvested and oil prices stabilize at $90-95/barrel, so Ukrainian farmers should sell part of their harvest under forward contracts.