China became the leader among importers of Ukrainian rapeseed meal for the first time

In the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine significantly increased its rapeseed meal exports to foreign markets. In the period from July to December, exports reached about 340 thousand tons, which is 70% higher than in the same period last season. Thus, the current result became the second largest in history for the first half of the season, second only to the 2023/24 MY, when exports reached 374 thousand tons.

The key factor behind the growth was the intensification of domestic rapeseed processing. According to estimates, in the first half of the season, Ukrainian enterprises processed almost 800 thousand tons of raw material. This was facilitated by the introduction of a 10% export duty on rapeseed, which stimulated the retention of raw materials within the country, as well as improving the economic attractiveness of processing due to increased margins.

At the same time, the rapeseed meal sales market remains difficult. Low domestic consumption does not allow for the full absorption of increasing production volumes, which is why companies are forced to apply price incentives to avoid the accumulation of excess stocks. An additional restraining factor is weak import demand from the European Union, traditionally a key destination for the Ukrainian product.

In the current season, the European market is characterized by increased self-sufficiency due to its significant domestic rapeseed harvest, as well as active competition from Canada. As a result, in the first half of the 2025/26 MY, Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports to the EU decreased from 171 to approximately 71 thousand tons. At the same time, Canadian deliveries in this direction increased sharply and reached about 436 thousand tons, while a year earlier they were virtually absent.

Against the backdrop of the narrowing of the European route, Ukrainian exporters were forced to more actively seek alternative sales markets. One of these destinations was China, where a shortage of rapeseed meal was formed due to incomplete compensation for the reduction in imports of the Canadian product. This allowed Ukraine to significantly strengthen its presence on the Chinese market.

According to the results of the first half of the season, exports of Ukrainian rapeseed meal to China reached a record 155 thousand tons, which for the first time brought this country to first place among importers of the Ukrainian product. At the same time, it is worth noting that the structure of Chinese rapeseed meal imports is currently formed mainly due to supplies from Russia, India and the UAE.

However, the prospects for further expansion of Ukraine into the Chinese market remain uncertain. The potential improvement of trade and economic relations between China and Canada, as well as the mutual reduction of import duties, may lead to the resumption of Canadian supplies and, accordingly, a decrease in the competitiveness of Ukrainian rapeseed meal in this direction in the near future.